The big news continues to be the active jet stream pattern and storm potential for our area. I mentioned last week how we should not get too much Spring Fever yet, because Winter is not over and that there were several potential storms on the horizon. We got hit with a couple inches of snow on Monday of last week, then the second and third storm in this pattern missed. One headed into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois last Thursday night and produced several inches of snow. The next headed into far northern Wisconsin (near Lake Superior and the UP of Michigan) and produced 2 to 3 inches on Sunday.

The fourth storm in this active weather pattern is what I will focus on today. It will be cruising through the upper Midwest Tuesday evening and Wednesday. The National Weather Service has already issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the entire Newsline 9 viewing area for this time period. It doesn’t look like this storm will be the most “energetic” or strongest storm we have had in the last couple of years, but it will have a high amount of moisture so the potential for heavy precipitation will still exist.

Snow Potential Tuesday Night & Wednesday

As of now, I am forecasting 8 to 12 inches of snow for areas around Clark, Marathon, and Shawano counties on up to around highway 8. Further north of highway 8, the snow should be a little less. South of Marathon county, it looks like 4 to 8 inches of snow. South of Wisconsin Rapids and Stevens Point, it might only be a trace up to 4 inches. The heaviest snow with this storm system will likely be in parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Over toward the Twin Cities, Eau Claire, and Rice Lake, there might be 15 or more inches of snow.

So what are the question marks that remain? Given that the storm is less than 36 hours away, there is less chance that it will completely change course and miss our area like the last two. There is a chance that more rain and sleet could mix in with the snow and thus keep snow totals more in the 4 to 8 inch range and not much more. There will likely also be a sharp cut-off between areas with little accumulation, in the far south, and a lot of accumulation farther north. In the past with this type of late Winter/early Spring storm I have seen a trace of snow fall in Stevens Point with close to 10 inches in Wausau on the same day. There could be such a sharp cut-off this time around as well. As far as the 8 to 12 inches accumulation, it looks like the lighter amounts (around 8 inches) will be east in the area, such as around Antigo, Wittenberg, and Tigerton, and the heavier amounts (closer to 12 inches) will be farther west in areas such as Medford, Withee, and Thorp. The record snowfall in Wausau on Wednesday is only 4.5 inches so we could end up setting a new record.

The storm will wind down on Wednesday afternoon and we will have a break in the action for Thursday, then another storm could hit on Friday. If it tracks over Wisconsin, we could be dealing with another several inches of rain, sleet, and snow. Be sure to check the blog, our weather page, twitter, and our facebook pages (news and weather) to stay informed about the storminess this week.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Winter Weather

Just a little update on the snowfall for today. Due to the unfrozen ground, a lot of the snow is melting as it falls. Snow was falling from 7:00 to 9:30am here in Wausau before anything began to stick on the grass. I still expect to reach one inch of snow accumulation in Wausau, and thus we should have winners in our First Snowfall contest. If today ends up being the winning date in the snowfall contest, then we will have a drawing for the top 4 prizes during Wake-Up Wisconsin on Friday morning.

A more difficult question is whether we will end up breaking the record snow fall here in Wausau for November 9th. The record is 3.0 inches set in 1896 and again in 1948. I think it will be close, but based on current trends on the radar and model projections, we might fall just a little short.

In any case, there are many locations in the viewing area that have had more accumulation at the time of this writing. You can check out some of the viewer photographs here. Up to 3 inches has been reported in grassy areas. So many locations will end up with the forecast 4 to 6 inches. Be careful on the roadways. Thankfully the snow should be winding down during the 3pm to 5pm time frame, so hopefully the afternoon commute will not be to treacherous.

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An update on the most recent cold fusion story out of Italy (check yesterday’s blog post for more). The inventor of the latest cold fusion device (named the “E-cat”), Andrea Rossi, claims to have sold 3 units thus far. The people or companies who ordered the units have thus far remained anonymous. I (and Rossi) have said from the beginning that the market will be the ultimate decider of hope vs. hoax. Now that the device is being used outside of Rossi’s control, we should get validation. I am still more of a skeptic than believer. If there is some strange nuclear reaction going on, and it produces electricity at a competitve cost, then Rossi will be rich and the world’s energy problems will be solved. I do not exaggerate.

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Another story that I have been following that has reached a happy conclusion, is the Mars 500 experiment. This was a mock mission to Mars, where 6 astronauts were locked up in a mock space ship for 520 days – the amount of time it would take for a real trip using today’s technology. Here is an article where they share their thoughts about the mission.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2011, Space, Technology, Winter Weather

We have seen very heavy bands of snow through most of the afternoon and evening.  A few of us saw a slight break tonight but the blowing and drifting snow still made for reduced visibilities and challenges on the roadways.

  As always there were several accidents being reported.  A few interesting notes about this storm, we had a report of Thundersnow in Adams counties.  I am jealous I didn’t hear any in Wausau although the most unstable air stayed just to the south.  We also had reports of freezing rain and sleet in Arkdale and Scandinavia.  The snow totals as of now are staying mainly from 5 to 8″ from Lincoln to Wood, in the Northwoods they are less, and south of Wood is when we have seen the mix plus the snow.  It is surely likely we will see an additional 3 to 5″ so totals should be close to expected in the hardest hit area, which is Central Wisconsin.  Here is what we have so far:

Waupaca 8.5″

Wautoma 8.0″

Point 8.0″

Nekoosa 8.0″

Polonia 7.0″

Arkdale 6.2″

Scandinavia 6.0″

Merrill 5.3″

Here is a good map with totals that get updated frequently from the NWS.  If you have a total, feel free to send it in!

Please be careful if you must drive in this weather.

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Snow Totals, Storms, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

Since it is on my mind because I just got off a live radio… don’t forget you can always get our weather forecast through your favorite radio stations.  We do an updated forecast for 96.7, 103.3, 106.5, and 107.9!  It is alot of fun doing the live morning hits with 96.7 and 107.9.  They all seem to really enjoy working for the radio stations and always have cleaver ideas. 

Alright so today I just wanted to share a few updates on the arctic blast across the US.  Now it is cold here, but check out compared to normal how cold it is across the entire US! It is pretty interesting that some peoples temp is actually colder then the departure from normal.  We have already broken records across Florida, and the Carolinas which is only the beginning.

Now we know it is going to stay cold for the next week just by looking at the seven day forecast.  But many times we look at the Climate Prediction Centers forecast for weeks or months beyong the general forecast.  Yesterday the CPC came out with their 8 to 14 day outlook which would predict the chance of below or above temps from the 14th through the 21st.  The same area that is seeing the cold spell this week will likely continue to see cold weather until right before Christmas.  We are sitting near the border of below normal to normal.   This being said we shouldn’t be the coldest ones relative to normal for the middle of December. 

On a slightly different but related topic….winter storms!  The NWS office came out with a write up of winter storms and what we are expecting for the 2010-2011 year.  If you look a the article a “winter storm” most consist of one of the following criteria for one or more counties in Wisconsin:

1. Snow accumulations of 6 inches or more,

2. Blizzard conditions for 3 hours or more – visibility below 1/4 mile due to falling and/or blowing snow with frequent wind gusts 35 mph or higher,

3. Ice accumulations of 1/4 inch or more in 12 hours or less due to freezing rain

4. Sleet accumulations of 2 inches or more in 12 hours or less,

5. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with sustained winds or frequent gusts of 25-34 mph and intermittent reductions in visibility to less than 1/2 mile resulting in closed roads, etc.

On average we see 12 winter storms, with 19 being the highest we have seen in a year, 4 the fewest.  When the earliest occurs is all over the board- from October, November or December.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Freeze, Records, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

May snow in Northern Wisconsin isn’t extremely uncommon, but a storm that could dump several inches of snow would be.  We are closely tracking the potential for accumulating snow for North Central Wisconsin for Friday evening.  Now if we saw a similar storm say in January…we would be dealing with a massive snowfall.  But since it is May, the warm ground temperature and borderline mild air temperature will likely hamper our snow totals quite a bit.  There is however the potential to see some high snowfall rates which would temporarily offset the warm ground and the snow would start to pile up. 

Here is the forecast discussion I wrote earlier this evening. 

Not much has changed since writing this discussion except our confidence is even greater that we will have an accumulating snow event tomorrow evening.  These late season snow storms are just so tricking when you factor in the warm ground.  The storm is however hitting at a favorable time of day.  If it hit during the height of day, then it would be even harder for the snow to accumulate with the ground being at peak warmth.  The forecast remains around an inch or so here in Wausau to as much as 4 or 5 inches the Northwoods.  And most will be on the grassy surfaces.

Here in Wausau this could end up being a top 10 snowstorm for the month of May….Here’s your current chart toppers.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Records, Spring, Winter Weather

For the second day in a row a smaller scale area of low pressure has caused big time headaches to evening rush hour drivers in parts of the state.  Yesterday the wintry mess was in Green Bay, and today it was Milwaukee’s turn.  This system is getting quite the reputation for quick hard hitting bursts of snow.  Here in Wausau we even got in on some the action yesterday with a quick 3/4″ of snow in just about a half an hour.The Green Bay area picked up about 2 to 4 inches yesterday.  With the help of some lake enhancement…The Milwaukee/Racine/Kenosha area picked up around 3 to 6 inches of snow today. 

Check out some Freeway camera pics earlier from the Wisconsin DOT….

Check out how simaler yesterday’s radar in GRB was to Milwaukee’s Radar in Mke this afternoon…

In both cases, these were extremely difficult events to predict due to how isolated the snow was.  This reminds me of a snow event we had couple years ago down in Stevens Point.  Those in Point may remember the late April snowfall of 2008.  Over 6 inches of snow fell in the city.  You may also remember how this was quite a surprise.  Here is a blog I wrote back in April of 2008.

So why the surprise?  What was different today, yesterday, and in April of 2008 from say a snowstorm that was forecasted several days in advance?  Well each of the mentioned snow events was convective.  Convective snow can be compared to scattered showers in the summertime.  Think of during the summer when all of a sudden you get a downpour…it lasts for 15 minutes then goes away.  Convective snow showers form from the similar process of quick air updrafts.  Bottom line….when dealing with convection (rain or snow) your forecast confidence in when, where, and how much goes down quite a bit.  Synoptic(large scale) meteorological patterns are a lot easier to forecast.  For example, we have a pretty good idea how much snow you classic ”panhandle hook” snowstorm is going to produce days in advance.  Unfortunately when dealing with convection, you almost have to wait up until the start of the event before you can get a pretty good idea of exactly who is going to get what.  Then today in Milwaukee when you throw lake enhancement into the picture, that adds a whole other element.  The good news is we learn from these events.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

Recent snow across the Mid-Atlantic has been one for the ages.  The 2009/2010 winter season will go down as the snowiest ever for the Baltimore and D.C. area.  The D.C. record goes all the way back to 1898!!!  Baltimore has shattered it’s record by over 17 inches!!!  The area has literally been shut down for 4 days.  No one is going to work…no one is going to school.  Clean up continues, but more snow may be on the way next week.  If the weather pattern we’re in remains…they could see several more storms before winter is over. 

While the mid-Atlantic catches a break it is now the deep south’s turn for snow.  Winter Storm Warnings have been posted all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.  The panhandle of Florida could see a few inches of snow.  Up to 10 inches could fall across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  Dallas has already picked up 8.7″ inches today…shattering all sorts of records. 

What a wacky winter so far….you have to blame El Nino!!!  It’s almost like we are sharing are cold and snow.  For how snowy and cold the south has been this winter, you would first expect our winter here in Wisconsin to be just brutal.  That really hasn’t been the case.  Just like the last few winters,our weather has been dominated by a strong upper level trough.  Which will normally bring very cold conditions with several polar highs sweeping across the Great Lakes.  It seems however that El Nino has pretty much cancelled out this pattern.  We will likely end up with an overall above average winter.  

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Records, Winter Weather

By now you probably have heard about minor earthquake this morning in Northern Illinois, which also rumbled southern Wisconsin.  Many people woke up to what they thought was maybe a snow plow hitting the house….nope it was an earthquake.  The quake initially registered at 4.3 on the Richter scale but was later adjusted to a 3.8.  This is a weak earthquake, but certainly enough to startle the sleeping residents of northern Illinois.  The epicenter has been pinpointed in Kane County.  At first I though the quake occured along one of the minor fault lines in that area, possibly the Sandwich Fault which has caused earthquakes in the past.  But it appears the quake originated along what could be an unidentified fault or maybe a new fault forming north of the Sandwich Fault.  Anyhow, here here is some of the coverage from our sister station WREX in Rockford, including an interview with a seismologist.

WREX WEATHER BLOG

WREX Coverage

NIU Seismologist Interview

N.W.S. Link

Well with this last storm system we only picked up around 2 inches of snow in the Wausau area, with up to a half a foot down in Adams.  This storm hit a lot harder in other areas including a lake enhanced foot of snow in Milwaukee and yet another blizzard for the Mid-Atlantic.  The highest snow total I could find in S.E. Wisconsin was 13.5″ in Kenosha.  I had my mom snap some pics of the snow in Racine.  She said they ended up with at least of foot but she wouldn’t dare go out an measure..ha!

The pics were taken about halfway through the storm.  There was almost no snow on the ground when the storm started. 

Looks like “The Jakester”(My dad’s 25 year old snow blower) took care of business again!!!

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather

It is the biggest snowstorm for most of the viewing area since Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but it won’t seemlike that big of a snowstorm. The reason? The snow will be of a long duration but remain light. It is already snowing this morning and the snow will continue all the way through Tuesday evening. Accumulations will only be a dusting during the daylight hours today. Tonight about 1 to 3 inches will accumulate with the lightest amounts in the northwoods and the heavier amounts (3 inches) in the south. Another 1 to 3 inches is likely on Tuesday with the heavier amounts again in the south and the lighter amounts (1 inch) in the Northwoods. So there could be totals approaching 6 inches around Necedah, Adams, and Wautoma. I am forecasting 2 to 3 inches here in Wausau – just enough to get out the shovel. The heaviest amounts of snow will be in southeastern Wisconsin and along the lakeshore where there will be lake-enhanced snowfall Cities such as Sheboygan, West Bend, and Racine could end up with around 10 inches of snow. There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect from noon today through 6pm Tuesday for Jackson, Juneau, Adams, and Monroe counties. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect from 6pm today through 6pm Tuesday for Wood, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Shawano, and Menominee counties. After the snowstorm it looks like quiet weather for the rest of the work week and maybe even all of next week as well. High temps will generally be about 5 degrees below most of this week, and then climb back closer to normal next week.

Alternative Energy News:

As you know, I follow the alternative energy news closely because it is intertwined with anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory. I am particularly excited about the prospect of electric vehicles. There are many advantages to electric cars from less air pollution, to lower maintenance cost, to less noise. The drawbacks are the driving range (on one charge) and the price. One company that made a big splash in the electric vehicle (EV) market is Tesla. You could say that they are the darling of the industry and they successfully sold out their inventory of the high-end Tesla Roadster. However, there are only so many people in the world (such as A-list celebs in LA) that have the money to buy a Roadster (approximately $110,000). Word on the street is that Tesla will stop producing the Roadster later this year and begin producing the Model S sedan. The Model S will sell for $60,000 to $70,000. Some people who have scrutinized the finances of Tesla claim they are not in a good position to remain solvent for an extended period into the future. They are living off a cash infusion from Daimler ($50 million) and a government loan of $465 million. They are also preparing for an IPO that will raise around $100 million. They will be in a tough spot with no additional sales of the Roadster and with the Model S not arriving until late 2011. I hope they survive as I think it would be a sign of health in the EV market.

Staying on the theme of challenges facing the EV market, road tests in real environments have shown that the batteries in the cars lose about 20 to 30 percent of their capacity in cold weather. Users are also finding that if they need to run the radio, the heater, or even the windshield wipers, they drain the battery and reduce the range of the car significantly. There are of course ways to conserve electricity when driving, but not without some degree of discomfort – like no heat and no radio. Better batteries will be needed in order to not only boost the range of EVs but also make sure people can use the amenities.

When it comes to EVs people are not only talking about the roadways but the skies as well. In fact, there is a large electric plane factory under construction in China as we speak. The argument in favor of electric planes versus jet planes is very similar to the situation with cars. Electric planes are quieter, they pollute less, and they are more efficient (as much as 4 times as efficient!). The big drawback is the batteries. Batteries are heavy and reduce the range of flight. In order to get around this, some people envision tiny electric airports locatedin urban areas that connect destinations less than 250 miles apart (like from Wausau to Green Bay or Madison). The airports could be located closer to residential areas because there would be hardly any noise or pollution. For longer flights, you would still have to travel to a big airport and hop on a jet plane. It will be interesting to see how the E-planes turn out. The airline industry is mature and unfortunately resistant to change. I think it will take quite a bit of outside pressure in order to make E-planes a reality.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Winter Weather

Ha..one of my favorite things to do is look ahead for possibly that next big snowstorm.  And guess what???…the next big snowfall may arrive while Santa delivers his presents. 

The latest GFS 18z model projects an area of low pressure swinging out of the Rockies, strengthening, then dumping snow on us by Christmas.  It has the makings of a classic “panhandle hook”.  We shall see…this is way too far in advance to bank on anything.  The forecast can change dramatically by then.  But it is never too early to have this in the back of your head. especially if you are doing any traveling.  We will of course continue to update you.

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Winter Weather