While covering alternative energy stories over the years I have mentioned many different innovations and the companies who develop them into products. Often times the companies are start-ups with big plans for the future. It has now been long enough that this blog roll contains a history of some companies from inception, to going public, to mass production, and then….decline.

Solyndra (and its scandal) went from boom to bust fairly quick. For First Solar the process has been a bit longer and they are certainly not busted…yet. I have followed the company since it went public and even cheered when their stock price rose above $160 dollars back in 2007. Here was a U.S. company using a fairly new technology (thin film solar panels) becoming a world leaders. The future looked bright. Unfortunately the future was built upon a house of cards. The housing crisis hit in the and revealed that much of the world’s economy was running on a mountain of debt, not the production of real goods and services. The debt crisis has been slow to unfold over the last 2 or 3 years but it is now hitting home in Europe where First Solar (FSLR) had traditionally been quite strong. FSLR is closing its plant in Germany – story here (use google translate to read it in English). The gist of the article is that European Nations are ending most of their alternative energy subsidies and this means the solar market is kaput. I knew that solar production was somewhat dependent on government subsidies but I didn’t realize it meant nearly everything in Europe. FSLR is also laying off some employees in Malaysia. The stock price today, $18 and change.

It is a sad turn of events for those of us who are optimistic for a clean energy future. It just shows once again that central planning does not work out very often. It is very difficult to force things into the market that are not cost competitive. The one bright spot is that so many solar panels have been  produced in the last couple of years (a lot in China) that there is an over-supply on the market and the prices are the cheapest they have ever been in relationship to the price of oil. I have been saving up some money to buy an electric car, but I might use that money on some dirt cheap (relatively speaking) solar panels instead. I was thinking about starting simple and just installing enough capacity to run the water heater, or maybe get a new solar water heater.

Then again, natural gas is also dirt cheap right now, and I mean really dirt cheap! Running the water heater with natural gas is barely costing anything. Natural gas is so cheap that I was thinking about buying a conversion kit for my car. According to a TV report I viewed a couple weeks ago, the cost of running your car on natural gas is less than half of running it on regular gasoline. At that rate, and $4 per gallon gasoline, it would not take too long to pay for itself. But I would need to fuel it up somewhere.

Kulps' Stratford CNG Station

Thankfully some forward-thinking business people in the area are already planning for more compressed natural gas (CNG) usage. Kulps of Stratford have already installed a fueling station. Maybe more will follow. Many truck fleets around the U.S. are already converting completely over to CNG, and saving A LOT of money in the process. It is a good thing.

At this point you might be thinking it is not such a ”good” thing, after all, CNG is a fossil fuel. And what about the fracking problems? First of all, the fracking problems, according to many scientists, are overblown. Second of all, CNG is the cleanest realistic fossil fuel we could use in order to clean up the air and environment, while we continue to develop better technologies (like solar and nuclear) for the future. Forget biofuels, most of which are beset with environmental and financial problems. CNG is where it is at for the short term to clean up the environment AND act as a bridge to a cleaner alternative energy future. I think environmentalists are making a HUGE strategic mistake by battening down the hatches and giving it all they got to shut down natural gas production.

Considering AGW, natural gas would not seem like a good solution until you compare it with coal, oil, and biofuels. If developed nations switched most of their energy production and transportation infrastructure over to natural gas for the next decade we would emit a lot less carbon dioxide. Not only that, it burns sooooooo much cleaner that we would simultaneously clean up the air land and water. Not only that, we would save a lot of money and stimulate the economy! Not only that, the government wouldn’t be wasting billions of dollars in loan scandals like Solyndra. In fact, the government would receive a mountain of money from drilling royalties. And the biggest “not only that” – maybe there would be less support for destructive bloody wars in the Middle East. They could keep their oil because the U.S. is literally drowning in natural gas. Did I mention that natural gas can be made from waste material as well? Natural gas seems like the ideal bridge fuel. Now if only the government would get out of the way.

Have a pleasant Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Pollution

There is a little hope yet for snow-lovers, snowmobilers, and Winter enthusiasts. It looks like the jet stream pattern will change a bit for the next week or two and become more active across the upper Midwest. There is no guarantee that we will have some “big snow” or that any snowmobile trails will open around central Wisconsin, but the odds look a little better than during the very quiet weather during the last week or so of January and the first 10 days of February.

For most of this Winter we have seen jet stream energy move in from the Pacific ocean and become cut-off across the southern half of the U.S.

More Active Jet Stream Pattern

It hasn’t been what I would call a true “split jet stream” but the results were pretty similar. It was good news for Texas as they ended up with more precipitation than normal in many parts of the drought-stricken state. It was bad news for Winter tourism in Wisconsin. While these cut-off weather system across the south produced copious precipitation, the northern branch of the jet stream remained far enough to the north to not affect us with many storms or outbreaks of cold air.

Now it appears that the jet stream will consolidate a bit over the mid section of the country. This will bring the cold arctic air in closer contact with storms developing over the lower 48 and it means more potential for significant snow. The second half of February could be one of the more colder and snowy periods of the entire Winter (again, no guarantee).

Very Preliminary Snow Potential for Thursday

The first chance of snow will be tonight for areas south of Wausau. A dusting up to an inch will be possible in a few areas – nothing to write home about. The second chance of snow will be Thursday morning when a stronger storm system will track through Illinois. It should be close enough to bring some accumulating snow to the southern and eastern parts of the area, mainly south and east of Marathon county. How much snow, current projections are for 2 to 4 inches for locations such as Adams, Wautoma, and Waupaca. We will continue to update you on the snow potential over the next couple days.

After Thursday there will be slight chance of snow on Friday and Saturday with chances of more significant accumulation holding off until next week. This week will not be a panacea for snow-lovers, but it might be the beginning of a trend which lasts through late October. If none of the potential heavier snowfalls tracks right through central Wisconsin, then hopes for the snowmobile trails to open will rest upon something happening in the first week of March. After that, it is all over. Even if a blizzard strikes in mid to late March, the clubs/counties will not open the trails.

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I have been following the sad tale of government backed alternative energy companies for a while now (Solyndra, Evergreen, Ener1, etc.) and unfortunately there are a couple more in trouble. Fisker – the electric car maker, which got a loan from the government and their primary battery provider A123 Systems, are experiencing financial trouble. Fisker is seeking out some new private capital to continue operations and if they don’t find some soon, might have to file for bankruptcy. A Fisker bankruptcy would most likely lead to an A123 banruptcy because Fisker is their biggest customer. Fisker has already nixed expansion plans at a New Jersey manufacturing plant. It would be a shame if Fisker did not make it because their Karma electric car is a beautiful sight to behold.

The problem with the battery-makers is that they ramped up production too quickly. Electric cars are still expensive so the market remains small. The battery makers ramped up production to reap the savings from economies of scale but are now sitting around with no one to sell to.

Tesla Model X

Another company with a government guaranteed loan is Tesla and they seem to be hanging in there, but I am worried about them as well. They produce an expensive electric vehicle for which there is a very small market. I suspect they are coming close to saturating the market for electric sports cars that sell for over $100,000. They are now moving into production of a $60,000 sedan and an $80,000 SUV – the Tesla Model X. The Model X was recently unveiled in Los Angeles and it looks hot, but how many people can afford one? That is the question.

Now even though companies go bankrupt, they can still sometimes rise from the ashes. Remember that Think filed for bankruptcy last yearafter putting 10,000 EVs on the road.

The Think City EV

They emerged from banruptcy with the help of a Russian billionaire, and might yet find a way to bring down the cost of EVs. They will need to because even their tiny electric cars run about $30,000.

When it comes to biofuels, the news is not too great either. Several start-ups have ceased operations recently and we can add another one to the list – Amyris. The problem? They could not scale promising lab results up into a profitable commercial operation. Their biofuel creation process was unique and interesting, but not profitable. This is something I often remark about here in the blog when reporting upon new inventions in the alternative energy and transportation industries. Promising lab work does not always mean commercial success!

More grain-based ethanol production would go under as well if it were not for ethanol mandates here in the U.S. The mandates for E85 and other blands are now the only thing keeping the industry going at full steam. In a blow to grain-ethanol, a new study claims it is not the best or cheapest way to achieve a cleaner energy future (something that critics have been saying for years). If it were not for the mandate, most people would choose cheaper regular gas. I know I would. All the cars I have driven over the last decade have gotten over 30 mpg, so I feel I am doing my part. If I didn’t have to pay and extra 10 or 15 cents per gallon for E85 (or other blends), I wouldn’t. I would rather have our corn be used for animal and/or human food.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, forecast, Technology, Winter Weather

Good news! The price of solar panels continues to fall. Although I would temper this news with the acknowledgement that most solar panel producers around the world are supported by government subsidies. Remember what we found out during the Solyndra Scandal. They were selling their solar “panels” for half the cost it took to make them. No wonder they went bankrupt and taxpayers lost their loan money. So the true price of the panels remains unknown, but the trend is good.

This report about India claims that solar panels in that country are now cheaper than running a diesel generator. In fact, the solar panels are typically half the cost of diesel power, not to mention much cleaner. If this trend continues, it will be a no-brainer for Indians to buy solar panels over fossil fuel, and this could perhaps help maintain the fragile (subsidy-supported) industry. This article about solar panel adoption in Africa also hints at the positive trend. The combination of cheap solar panels and one of my other favorite subjects – LED lighting – has made solar electric powered lighting (and gadget re-charging) more feasible than using fossil fuel such a kerosene. Here is an older article about some of the various solar lighting tech employed in remote and poor areas of Africa. Solar/LED is not as cheap as using old plastic soda bottles for lighting, but it is becoming a better option in developing countries.

Remember too, that the efficiency of solar panels continues to increase incrementally year-over-year. Along with the lower manufacturing cost, efficiency gains will make solar even more attractive in coming years. The panel prices here in the U.S. have dropped dramatically as well. The main problem that remains is the installation cost. That is what prevents me from getting solar panels on my roof just yet. For anyone who can figure out a way to reduce the cost of installation there is some money to be made.

So what has driven the cost of solar panels down so much? More efficient manufacturing for the most part (and the aforementioned subsidies). Every day I hear or read about another incremental improvement in solar panel production. Recently, Astrowatt has developed a new method for creating silicon wafers which involves peeling the silicon off the inguts instead of sawing it off. This wastes less material and since polysilicon is one of the more expensive pieces of the solar puzzle, it should reduce the cost by a small percentage. On the power electronics side of things, Arraypower has invented a new type of DC to AC inverter that could cut the cost of big solar installations by 10%.

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Now a follow-up on a developing technology that seems to be flying under radar of popular culture but not under the radar of this blog. It is cloaking. The latest engineering feat comes from the University of Texas at Austin. They have created the world’s first 3D cloak to hide an object in free space. They have used surface plasmons on metamaterials to achieve this feat, which is a little too complicated to explain here. But don’t expect to wear a Harry Potter invisibility cloak anytime soon, this cloaking was again in the microwave range of the electro-magnetic spectrum, not in the visible range, but it is amazing none-the-less.

In a year or two I expect more cloaking developments in the visible range. Perhaps some large scale cloaking might be demonstrated in a decade. I don’t know if people appreciate how much this technology would change society. In the movies, it is usually just the protagonist or villain who has the invisibility cloak, which makes for simple drama. What if everyone had access to this? The ramifications would be immense and unsettling. It would certainly affect the power relationship between oppressive government and the people. It would affect warfare and crime. Like most disruptive technology it would likely be feared at first but accepted eventually.

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Lastly, another report about the attempt to drill into Lake Vostok. In this article, the Russian scientists are quoted as not being certain whether they will be able to complete the drilling before Winter sets in and might have to wait until next Summer (Summer in Antarctica, that is).

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

During the course of analyzing the future of air pollution, technology, and alternative energy I often highlight some of the companies that are creating the future. Some are hits and some are misses. Successful or not, I like to follow-up on the latest developments. One trend as of late is that the biggest “misses” are the government supported start-up companies. Most people are aware of the Solyndra scandal and the half billion tax-payer loan that went down the drain, now Ener1 has also filed for bankruptcy (after receiving a 118 million dollar “stimulus” grant). Ener1 was in the business of making batteries for electric cars. I mentioned this company in the weather blog back in 2008. At the time company leaders were hoping to cut the cost of lithium-ion batteries in half. The cost of lithium-ion batteries has come down quite a bit in the last 4 years but apparently it did not help out Ener1. All is not lost though, a Russian billionaire is investing some money in the bankrupt company to see if it can be revived. Here is a more in depth financial look at Ener1 and other U.S based battery companies, some political analysis from Reason, and a more sarcastic take on government support of business in general. I understand the stated reasons and justifications behind using tax-payer money to speculate in new industries, but nothing can replace the free market’s pressure to produce winners. Government grants are “free” money for those who receive them. When a business is started with private capital in the free market, there is more pressure to succeed. If you don’t succeed, you lose “your” money, your friend’s money, or your investor’s money.  That is a big deal. People and companies with their own money on the line typically work smarter and harder to succeed.

MIT-designed CityCar

From a miss (Ener1) to a potential hit on another future trend – electric vehicles. So many future designs and EV dreams have passed before my eyes and the pages of this blog  in the past few years that you might be swayed into believing that everyone is driving one by now. While that is not the case, some cars have made it onto the market including one that I didn’t think would succeed, or at least not make it from concept to commercial product. It is the MIT-designed “CityCar” (not to be confused with the T.27 city car). A commercial version was recently unveiled in Europe. Now we will see if there is a market for this tiny electric car that “folds up” to fit into tight parking spaces. Basically, if you like the Smart Car and think it is cute, then you will probably love the CityCar. I would buy one and drive it around town (keeping a gas car for longer drives on the freeway). The only barrier will likely be price. A couple years ago I was amazed at how expensive the Smart Four 2 was for being so small and only getting 40 mpg. Most electrics are rather pricey and this story announcing its availability does not give a price.

And since we are on the topic of businesses and products succeeding or failing, I might as well mention the iconic American company Kodak. They recently filed for bankruptcy. After reorganization they are planning to dip their toes into thin film solar panel production. Some people think that their old photographic film business could be transformed into solar panel production. I suppose it is a possibility but the solar market is already ultra-competitive. There has been a lot of commentary about Kodak’s demise because it used to be a giant among U.S. companies. A lot of people blame the management for not seeing the future of digital photography, but that wasn’t the main problem. In fact, Kodak invented digital photography and manufactured good digital cameras. The main problem was that the film business was so much larger and more profitable. Even if Kodak aggressively pursued digital photography and digital cameras and completely dominated the market, they still would have had to shed most of their workforce and their stock price would still be a tiny fraction of what it was during the 1970s and 1980s. The digital picture business is vary low margin compared to film. There just was not a lot of money to be made there – not enough to support a company the size of Kodak.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

The main headline in weather continues to be the potential for a significant winter storm to affect Northcentral Wisconsin on Wednesday. Earlier this morning, I was still holding to a forecast of 2 to 4 inches of snow (mixed with sleet and rain) for much of central Wisconsin and 4 to 6 inches for areas north and west of Marathon county. There is enough moisture with this system that a few spots could end up with 7 or 8 inches of snow.

The latest computer model output indicates a shift in the track of the storm a little bit farther east. We will continue to get updated analyses throughout the day and if this shift is confirmed, it would mean more snow for central Wisconsin and less snow for the northwestern areas, perhaps close to 6 inches for Wausau and only and inch or two around Phillips and Medford. For now I am sticking with the original forecast. Be sure to check Tony’s forecast later today and this evening to get the latest on this evolving storm. In any case, the weather will not be conducive to safe travel on the roadways. In acknowledgement of Winter Weather Awareness Week here in Wisconsin, please leave early for work and school tomorrow and drive slowly. The first snow of the season is typically the one to produce the most accidents.

Also remember that if we have 1 inch of snow or more in Wausau on Wednesday, then it will be the winning date for the first snowfall contest. If the winning date is tomorrow, then we will most likely hold the drawing for the top 4 prizes (R-store gift cards and cash wash coupons) on Friday during Wake-Up Wisconsin.

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On to one of my more favorite topics – alternative energy. I am glad to see more people noticing the acceleration of technological progress. This article (warning, political in nature) comes from Paul Krugman of the New York Times. Many people have argued that Krugman is a very poor economist, but at least he has noticed the dramatic decline in solar energy cost during the last few years. Of course, I was on this case a few years ago already, noting the seeming exponential increase in solar power production and the decrease in cost. Here is an article about the trend as Ray Kurzweil sees it. 

Dye-Sensitized Solar Panels

While progress in solar power and greater cost competitiveness is great, I am afraid Krugman is not factoring in the some of the subsidies that support the industry and the low prices. I have no first hand knowledge of how much government money is used to support the solar industry but I know it has been big in Europe and everyone is claiming China supports their industry with gargantuan amounts of money. The Chinese subsidies are such a sore spot that many solar companies are now trying to sue China based on free trade agreements. Seeing as every country around the world provides some sort-of subsidy for their favorite national industries, I am unsure how far the lawsuit will progress. Even if all the subsidies were stripped away, there would still be progress in coming years, because technology as a whole continues to progress. The mass adoption of solar power and reaching cost parity with traditional fossil fuels might take a couple years longer without subsidies, but the day would still arrive (barring any world-wide disaster).

And of course, to prove the point, here are some recent developments in solar technology:

• The biggest news is that Sharp has broken the world record efficiency for compound solar cells at 36.9 percent. This is not just some “pie-in-the-sky” theoretical lab work. Sharp will be producing this record-breaking solar cell for the world market soon.
• Research into printable dye-sensitized solar cells continues. Researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute for Technology have pushed the efficiency of this type of solar cell up to 12.3%. They claim that if the efficiency can be extended up to 15% then it they will be cost competitive with high-end solar cells.
• Scientists at Argonne National Laboratories and Penn State have devised luminescent solar concentrators that could be used to collect a greater percentage of the suns energy than current concentrators and tracking systems. This research is a bit more “pie-in-the-sky” and is a few years from potential commercialization.
• A significant part of the cost of solar power is in the manufacturing of the solar cells so increased automation and newer techniques all help out with the cost competitiveness. Using optical cavity furnaces could shave up 4% off of the manufacturing cost.
• While recent U.S. government investments in the solar industry have gone bankrupt (as should be expected), there is still a lot of private investment, which has a higher likelihood of success. Here are some solar investments Bill Joy has invested in and a few more thoughts on the industry in general.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology, Winter Weather

Solar power advocates like me have been feeling a bit glum lately. The news is not all that great. Europe - where the most solar power has been installed in recent years – is broke. Since the vast majority of the solar installations in Europe were heavily subsidized by governments, it is unlikely that the pace of solar power increases will continue in coming years. Here in the U.S. three different ”leading lights” of the solar industry have recently gone bankrupt (Evergreen, Spectrawatt, and Solyndra). Solyndra even managed to burn up a half billion dollars of tax-payer money in the process and is an evolving political scandal. Even the biggest U.S. manufacturer of solar panels, First Solar, has seen its stock price drop from $175 to $52 a share. The price of oil has come down a little as well in recent weeks, making solar investments look a little less attractive.

In the face of all this solar companies and researchers continue to innovate. Financial turmoil might produce some headwinds right now but the trend toward higher efficiency and cost competitiveness continues. My interest was recently piqued by a company here in the U.S. that is offering to install solar panels on your rooftop for free, plus you only have to pay for the electricity that is generated by the solar panels. If it is cloudy and the solar panels do not generate any electricity then you don’t pay anything. Even more exciting is that you will pay 20 to 30% less than you do from your regular utility company. Sounds like fantasy-land, doesn’t it? What is the catch, you ask? You have to sign a 20 year contract with the company (and the company might go bankrupt). Having to sign a 20 year contract for your electric bill seems like a big commitment, but if you lock in a rate that is currently 20 to 30% below fossil fuel generated electricity, that would still seem to be a pretty good deal. It seems unlikely that the cost of fossil fuel electricity will drop precipitously over the next decade or two. You pay for nothing except for the electricity that is generated from the solar panels. Another catch is that you have to live in Hawaii, New Jersey, or Utah in order to get the solar panels. Hopefully they will expand into other markets (like Wisconsin) before they go bankrupt. I would sign up for the solar panels in a heart beat.

I keep mentioning bankruptcy because I know how much solar panels and installation cost. If the scheme was obviously and significantly profitable, they would be expanding everywhere right now. The market for “free” solar panels is huge. The company with this bold solar plan is Vivint Solar. For this recent expansion they are partnering with US Bank which will “front a $75 million tax equity”. I am not sure what this is, but I venture to guess that they would not be installing free solar panels without some sort of subsidy. The financial question is, who is taking the loss? Is US Bank doing this out of the goodness of their “heart”? Are they going to leverage that $75 million to defray future losses? Do they get money back from the government? If the scheme collapses before becoming profitable, will the company would take back the solar panels? It will be interesting to follow this development. I hope they succeed. I can’t wait to get my hands on some free solar panels.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

I bring a lot of information to the blog about the positives and negatives revolving around AGW and alternative energy, but I try to accentuate the positives.

Recently you might have read about the Solyndra scandal and the negative outlook for the solar industry, you might have read about Peak Oil (“just around the corner” – like always), or maybe you have seen evidence of a potential world-wide economic collapse. These are certainly things to take note of but you should also keep your eye on all the progress going on in the world. For those of you with an optimistic eye, here are some recent headlines that highlight the acceleration of technological progress.

* A couple years ago I mentioned how the next entrepreneurs to become rich would be those inventing products that would produce clean energy or increase energy efficiency. In particular I mentioned that roof shingles or windows that went from white/clear to dark/opaque would be a great invention. The shingles are becoming a reality and now the windows are nearing reality as well. Korean scientists have created a window that can go from nearly clear to nearly opaque in seconds. If such a window could be made at an economically viable price, it would shave a significant percentage off of heating a cooling costs around the world.

* Another area that invention is sorely needed in is battery technology and we are getting a lot of progress here as well. Researchers at Leeds University in England have created a gel based, flexible, lithium ion battery. They claim it has the same performance as current lithium batteries. The question remains, will it cost the same or less? A cheaper long lasting battery is what is needed to make intermittent alternative energy sources like wind and solar to be successful. Storing energy needs to be cheap and a Pittsburgh company has developed a new easy to manufacture and cheap auqeous battery. Will this be the breakthrough that speeds the adoption of alternative energy? LG Chem, the South Korean company that provides batteries for some commercial EVs for sale in the market today, have developed a lithium ion battery that holds 3 times as much energy and charges faster as well.

* In the solar industry, even though the economy is not helping out much right now, innovation continues at a rapid pace. A collaboration of Universities from around the world recently developed the most efficient (6%) colloidal quantum dot solar cells ever produced. These have the potential to be cheaper because they are much easier to manufacture. Besides creating electricity, work is being done to capture more heat from the sun as well and do useful work with it. Scientists from MIT have designed (simulated) a solar heat system using carbon nanotubes and azobenzene that is potentially 10,000 times more capable of storing energy. Researchers in Illinois have recently developed 3 dimensional photonic crystals that should also help to create more efficient solar panels and LEDs. If solar panels were “blacker” and absorbed all the light that strikes them, they would be more efficient and that is where this recent material developed at Purdue University could come into play.

* Even at the smallest of scales, there is a lot of energy to be saved. Here is one such example that has been saving energy (a trillion watt-hours and counting) since 2003 – slowing down transistors. Engineers at the University of San Diego, implemented a technique to slow down transistors that are not being used in electronic devices in order to stop them from “leaking away” electricity.

* In the realm of “inventions” that are making their mark in the real world, how about zero emission housing? A couple of real functional houses were recently constructed in Chicago to prove it can be done at an affordable price.

* Being a big fan of LED lighting for its positive environmental profile, I was happy to see Taiwan finally got smart and changed all of their traffic signals to LEDs.

These stories and a bunch more that I didn’t have time for, have all popped up in the last few weeks. Yes, even during this great recession, progress continues.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy

I’ll start out with even more interesting September weather factoids for today. It might be hard to remember back to, say, September 12th, but at that point in the month we were in the middle of a significant dry spell and the high temperature was 83. In fact, high temps were in the 80s for almost 5 days in a row (one of the days was only 79). How long was the dry spell? We ended up with 12 days in a row with not a drop of rain. If you include the 4th of September and the 17th, days when there was only a trace of rain, then the dry spell was 14 days.

Fast forward a little. Including the trace on the 17th we have now had 11 days in a row with rainfall. If there is a sprinkle today and some shower activity tomorrow (likely) then our streak of wet weather would be extended to 13 days in a row. It is feeling and looking a lot more like the Pacific Northwest than Northcentral Wisconsin.

1899 Snowball Fight in Florida!

You might be a little dismayed by all the cool wet weather but just be thankful you didn’t have to endure September of 1899. During late September of that year there were several record cold temperatures set. There were record lows of 26, 21, and 18 on the 26th, 29th, and 30th respectively. The record low on the 30th is still the coldest September temperature ever recorded in Wausau. Even worse for folks back then is that there were several  records for coldest high temperature as well. The records were 42, 38, and 45 on the 28th, 29th, and 30th respectively. It was quite an extreme year in weather history as earlier, during February of 1899 we had a record low of -40 on February 10th (the coldest temperature ever recorded in Wausau). Heavy snow fell as far south as Florida that February. Later in the Fall there was a record high of 80 on October 23rd, making it the second latest 80 degree record in the books (for Wausau). The latest we have ever experienced 80 degrees in Wausau is October 27th.

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On the alternative energy scene the Solyndra scandal continues to ruminate. While there has been plenty of circumstantial evidence to indicate some sort-of shady dealings in this debacle, some people have defended the taxpayer investment by highlighting the risky nature of investing in start-up companies. Others have maintained that it is not fair that other national governments of the world provide more support for alternative energy companies and infrastructure – specifically China in the case of solar power. Most solar panels are manufactured in China because of the very cheap labor cost and government subsidies. It is very difficult to compete against that, although FirstSolar seems to be managing (with less direct subsidy). Seeing China lure battery manufacturing away from the U.S. as well with the recent Boston Power agreement, might lead people to think we are doing things wrong here in America, or that we are going to lose the “technology race”. I doubt it.

First of all, government subsidies are a dicey proposition. How many half-billion dollar loans can the government dole out (and lose it all) before there are major funding problems affecting other government services. Second of all, government bureaucrats are notoriously awful at picking and funding ”winning” technology. Thirdly, the billions wasted on failed start-ups, could have remained in taxpayer pockets where it would likely have been put to better use. Some people might have had enough money to buy some alternative energy devices for their house or maybe an electric car. Some of that money might have gone into inventing some new energy saving widget or starting a new company that survived in the market place. We will never know. What we do know is that Solyndra was selling their product (a very nice product) for half or less the cost of manufacturing. A guaranteed bankruptcy.

In China, the government is probably losing A LOT of money on all the loans and subsidies given out to solar panel manufacturers. Of course, the people cannot complain about it over there. The government says and the people do. Simple as that, except that these types of things tend to catch up with governments. By many measures, China has overspent on infrastructure in the past decade and might be due for a collapse. Also, wages are rising. So the labor part of the equation is starting to equalize with the rest of the world. What will the Chinese government do when it runs out of money? My feeling is that the more automated manufacturing plants here in the U.S. will win the day.

Whatever “winning” means.

In today’s increasingly intertwined economy, it is increasingly difficult to say who is winning and who is losing. Many people bemoan all the manufacturing that goes overseas but I don’t see too many people willing to give up their cheap products from the local box store. I don’t think many people are willing to pay double (at least!) for the price of car completely manufactured in the U.S. from material completely sourced from within the U.S.

Back to the solar issue. If Chinese laborers are satisfied with their low wage and can make a living and if the Chinese government is willing to lose tons of money subsidizing solar panel manufacturers, and they trade freely with the rest of the world, then we gain by getting cheaper solar panels. Seeing as China has the worst pollution in the world, it is probably worth it for the government to lose money supporting solar companies. Their future life and health is probably at stake more than any other country.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Pollution, Records, Technology, Weather History