During the record tornado outbreak of 2011 many people had speculated that La Nina (part of the Pacific ocean ENSO cycle I blog about quite often), was somehow responsible. A recent study of past deadly tornado years has found that most of them are linked with a condition called trans-Nino. Trans-Nino time period when La Nina is fading, when the central Pacific ocean temps are heading toward a more neutral phase. This was happening during the Spring of 2011 when we had a couple of tornado outbreaks. One of which struck the city of Merrill.

I should caution though, that the sample size is not that high so it weakens the statistical correlation. Also, only 7 out of the 10 worst tornado years were linked with trans-Nino. So there were some years with a high number of deadly tornadoes when some other pattern was driving things. Strong tornadoes can happen in all seasons here in the U.S. You always have to be on guard. With this new study, perhaps we can forecast a little more in advance. Not pinpointing when and where there will be tornadoes, but highlighting the fact that certain years might have a higher number of bad tornadoes.

_______________________________

Update:  Here is a place you can see some additional video from the record-breaking sky dive from the edge of space that took place over the weekend.

In other space news, another trail-blazing private citizen is pony-ing up at least $35 million dollars to take a 10 day trip to the space station. It is renowned singer and recording artist Sarah Brightman. I used to have one of her CDs so it is neat to see she is a space enthusiast.

A lot of people might frown upon the thought of space flight only being for “the rich” or that it is a waste of money. I don’t. These people are taking risks, just like real astronauts. For those of us hoping that at some point in the future we might travel to space, these people (who earned every penny of their fortune) are keeping private space companies afloat in a time when governments are generally scaling back on human space flight. Also, one of the greatest risks humans face is that we are stuck on this planet. To ensure a greater chance of surviving a great catastrophe, it would be best if we had some settlements off-world as well. Dennis Tito, Anousheh Ansari, and now Sarah Brightman are playing a key niche role for our future safety and security.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, Space

The storm system we have been talking about the last couple of days is still projected to hit the southern part of the area Saturday night and Sunday. A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for Juneau, Adams, Monroe, and Jackson counties. Winter Weather Advisories might be added at some point. As things look right now, the heaviest snow will fall in the areas covered by the watch with much lighter amounts to the north. 4 to 8 inches looks possible around Plainfield, Necedah, and Lake Arrowhead. 2 to 3 inches could fall as far north as Stevens Point and Wisconsin Rapids. An inch or less is likely in Wausau and most of Marathon county. If the storm track shifts by 30 or 40 miles, this will have a big impact on snow totals so be sure to monitor Kristen’s  and Brian’s forecasts over the next couple of days. The weatheer will also be cold on Sunday and Monday with high temps only in the low to mid 30s. Better weather with more sunshine will develop by the middle of next week. On Wendesday and Thursday high temps should reach the mid to upper 40s.

Space News:

I am as excited as most space exploration enthusiasts to see the development of private space exploration and tourism and have been wondering how the economic downturn is affecting things. I imagine there will not be as much activity or funding during the recession and some projects might have to be put on hold. The topic was brought up at the recent National Space Symposium. Space entrepreneurs admitted that there will be challenges ahead but remained optimistic. Earlier this week we learned that Virgin Galactic is still moving forward with testing of SpaceShipTwo so that is good news. One troubling sign is that I have not seen much news from Bigelow Aerospace lately. Checking their website, the last news update was May of last year! Maybe they had to lay-off their website staff in order to save money.

Another part of the economy that is feeling the effects of the downturn is the alternative energy industry. According to this article, venture capital funding has fallen by 48% since last year. That is a dramatic drop, but things are still moving forward, just not as fast as in 2008.

The hottest segment continues to be the electric car market. It seems more and more people are coming around to the idea that if we are going to keep driving autos, electric is the most logical choice. Hydrogen and biofuels just have too many drawbacks and barriers to implementation. Hydrogen and fuels cells could find a good home in electricity storage from wind and solar farms but not in cars. Here is a review of Nissan’s entry into the EV market. Don’t worry, the car in the pictures is not what the final product will look like. I doubt they would sell many if it did not have a little style. The price of Nissan’s future EV is speculated to be in the $20,000 to $30,000 range. Not too bad, but probably out of my means. I need something in the $10,000 to $15,000 range before I can consider buying new.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Space, Winter Weather

March 2009 is over-with and it went out like a lion. It was also below normal, making it the 15th out of the last 17 months that have been at or below normal (11 below normal and 4 right at normal). I consider months that are less than .50 degree above or below normal to be “right at normal”. Only 2 months during that time span have been more than a half degree above normal, those were January 2008, andSeptember 2008. March of 2009 was about 1 degree below normal. It was an odd month in that total precipitation was above normal but snowfall was well below normal. March can sometimes be a very snowy month, but this year we ended up with more rain than snow. We ended up with one record and that was a record rainfall of 1.12 inches on March 24th. The best news of the month is that precipitation was above normal by a half inch. Hopefully this trend will continue through the Spring and Summer and end the severe drought we are experiencing. Here are the preliminary stats:

• Average High: 38.3  (normal: 39.8)
• Average Low: 19.8  (normal: 20.5)
• Total Precipitation: 2.44″  (normal: 1.92″)
• Snowfall: 2.5″  (normal: 10.7″)
• Highest Temperature: 62 on the 17th
• Lowest Temperature: -15 on the 2nd

Looking ahead into April, I can’t guarantee above normal precipitation, sorry. It does look like below normal temps will continue through the middle of the month, again, sorry. High temps will be in the upper 30s with cloudy skies, gusty winds, and light rain and snow showers. We will experience a bit more sunshine over the next 3 days so temps should warm up, from the low 40s on Thursday, into the mid 40s Friday, andupper 40s on Saturday. The warmer trend will come to an end on Sunday and Monday as another big storm moves into the Midwest. High temps will drop back into the 30s. Heavy snow andrain is possible with this storm. Right now it looks like the most likely spot for the heavy precipitation will be in the southern half of the state, south of Marathon county. Our team of Storm Trak9 meteorologists will keep you up to date withany changes withthis storm as it will have a significant impact on any late weekend travel plans.

Alternative Energy News:

Here are a couple stories I did not have time to add yesterday. It looks like the Obama administration is going to kill the Chevy Volt. It has to do withthe fact that they do not think the car will be profitable. This is something I touched on yesterday. The projected cost of the Volt will be within a few thousand of the more expensive Tesla Model S. People who can afford a Volt might upgrade to the Model S. Still, if GM is not going to produce the Volt, what will they do to make money? Sell more Hummers? Trucks? Hybrids and electrics are the future. Maybe the government could offer a bigger rebate for purchasing the Volt.

How will you charge up your hybrid or electric car? How about a solar carport.

How about a wind powered car? Not too realistic for most driving conditions but they can really fly. The world speed record for a wind-powered car was recently broken. British engineer Richard Jenkins set the record by hitting 126.1 mph. Now you might be thinking – was the wind blowing at 126 mph? Otherwise how could the car move so fast. It is powered by a rigid sail that acts like an airplane wing (albeit a vertical one in this case). The configuration of the “sail” allows the car to achieve speeds 3 to 5 times higher than the wind speed. Pretty cool.

In the world of AGW, coal power plants that capture and store carbon dioxide are gaining some interest. One such project in the U.S., FutureGen, was put on hold last year because of cost overruns, but it might now be revived. If we are going to accept the AGW greenhouse gas theory, then carbon capture andstorage (CCS) is probably a good idea, since coal is so plentiful. However, CCS takes more energy to work. To me, it just seems to be self-defeating to burn more coal in order to store carbon dioxide under ground. We might as well use that energy to produce more solar andwind components and put them to work.

Space News:

Some interesting events in space recently. The human population in space is currently at a record 13 people. That doesn’t sound like much but it is interesting to dwell upon. As the ISS grows bigger and as the private space tourist companies move forward it is interesting to speculate as to when the record will be broken. Maybe next year? When Virgin Galactic passengers reach the edge of space for 3 to 4 minutes, will they be part of the “space population”? I wonder when the number will reach 20, 50, 100? In order to have 100 people “off planet” we will need some serious infrastructure in place, such as more space stations/hotels and/or settlements on the Moon, Mars, or asteroids.

On the subject of Virgin Galactic, Spaceship Two has completed its third flight – its highest speed test flight yet. Wannabe space tourists might have to rely on the private industry for the next couple of years because there might not be any spots on future flights to the ISS. Even billionaires will not be able to find a place – according to this article.

Back to Mars, in a move that shows at least some people are still serious about a manned mission to Mars, a new simulation has begun in order to prepare astronauts for the long journey. An experiment in Russia will confine 6 astronauts in a space similar to the hypothetical size of a future Mars spacecraft. They will try to live in this mock spaceship for 105 days. A real round trip to Mars will be almost 5 times that long. Still, this is a start. The biggest problem will be physical effects from the zero G environment. Perhaps they should wait until a rotating spacecraft can be created, one that can produce artificial gravity – like the spaceship in the movie Mission to Mars.

Until we have the proper vehicle, we will have to make do with robotic explorers – two of which have been exploring the Red planet for an amazing 5 years. The Spirit rover recently uncovered a bright patch of soil. Opportunity keeps moving toward Endeavour crater. Here is an article that lays out the potential future of the two rovers. Also, a nice recap of some discoveries made by the Phoenix lander. Not only are discoveries being made directly on the surface. The MRO is snapping some pretty interesting images from space. Given the recent spate of Martian discoveries you would think attitudes would be positive, but some think the Martian program is in dissarray.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Monthly Recap, Science, Space, Spring