While trying to keep pace on the explosion of technological progress in the world today I come across and share many spectacular headlines. Judging by the headlines, it seems there is some sort-of magic breaking down every problem we face in the world today, but most of that magic is just marketing hype unfortunately. I always try to blunt the hype by reminding everyone that the devil is in the details and that “more efficient thingys”, “faster widgets”,  other seemingly fantastical advances are only “in the lab” and mass manufacturing is often times a long way off.

Why do we get the hyped-up headlines? Because behind the scenes there is money to be made on hype. Private start-up up companies want to catch some venture capital money so they try to spin their technology in the most positive light. Even University press releases are sprinkled with sensationalist wording at times because they want to highlight how their campus is the best for this or that field of research. This was brought home to me recently because I have a couple of aquaintances that were recently involved in Silicon Valley start-ups in the biotechnology field. One company was developing some very advanced technology and they were able to generate enough enthusiasm for their potential product to raise 30 million dollars. There was a lot of promise, but in the end, they were unable to make the technology work. The other company worked under the radar and actually did develop a novel biotechnology that worked but they were unable to generate enough hype to raise money and grow their company. Hype can make a difference.

This also occurred to me when I read this recent alternative energy article. The headline was “An Electric Car That Actually Goes Far?” This headline was repeated across many outlets. The sad news is that there is not an electric car that actually goes far. The headline should have read “Lithium Air Batteries Get Closer to Reality”. Researchers in the UK have developed a new way of building lithium air batteries that remove some of the more unstable parts. I have covered the progress of lithium air batteries in the past. As was the case in the past, progress and research continues but lithium air is not ready for prime time. Not now, not in the near future. I think you could safely bet that we won’t see the technology in widespread use for another 3 years but more likely closer to 10 years. By the way, IBM’s lithium air battery technology is not expected to arrive commercially until 2020 at the earliest.

Tesla Model S

Another related and seemingly hyped-up statement came from the CEO of Tesla motors – Elon Musk. He is betting that electric cars are going to be more than 50% of cars on the road within 12 to 15 years. Most people think the number will be closer to 1% in that time frame. Then again, most people have a hard time grasping the nature of exponential progress. It seems like things are going very slow at first and then – whoooomp – all of a sudden the technology arrives en masse. It happened with many technologies in the recent past, such as computing and the Internet. It is easy to analyze our current fossil fuel reliance, our current manufacturing processes, our current transportation network, and come to the conclusion that electric cars are a long way off as the main mode of transportation. However, what we fail to see are potential breakthroughs in technology (like batteries) and sudden shifts in societal attitudes. I suspect that is what Mr. Musk is anticipating when making his bold prediction.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

As more air pollution has developed in Wisconsin over the last few years, I have become more of an advocate of electric cars. (Aside: on average pollution of all forms in the U.S. is much less than the middle of last century). One of the main criticism of electric vehicles (EVs) is that they are just “coal cars” since most of the electricity that fuels them will come from coal-fired power plants. I have argued that even though the electricity might come from a coal-fired power plant, the delivery mechanism and pollution control measures inherent in the operation of EVs are much more efficient than with comparable fossil fuel transportation infrastructure. It is much easier to control pollution from one smoke stack at a power plant than from millions of tiny “smoke stacks” (tail pipes) attached to internal combustion engines. Of course, I haven’t had the time or resources to do an official study.

Pollution Problems in China

The headline from a recent study claiming that EV’s DO NOT reduce pollution had me a little worried. After I read a little more into it, I found that the study was in China and that makes a huge difference. What happens in China is probably not applicable to EV operation in other parts of the world. First of all, they probably do not have as good of pollution control at their power plants. They have “official” regulations of course, but many observers report that these regulations are rarely followed. Judging by the air pollution pictures out of China, I would say they are correct. Also, China gets most of its power from coal. This is not the case in many other countries. The U.S. does have a heavy reliance on coal but the use of natural gas is increasing. Natural gas power plants have much less pollution, so on average, the EV/pollution study would probably turn out much better here.

Then of course there are people who charge their EVs with wind and solar power which causes even less pollution. I would be negligent if I didn’t also mention that EVs require much less maintenance and do not create as much noise pollution. So EVs might not be the perfect solution – right now – but there is certainly promise for the future. I would like to buy one but the price is still too far out of my range.

The Tesla Model X

Price is the hurdle that is keeping Tesla motors on edge in recent months. Is the luxury electric car market big enough to keep them solvent. This recent article looks into the question. Tesla was of course one of the companies that benefited from the boom in clean energy investment that occurred during the first decade of this century. That boom has now went bust and here is a long article about the rise and fall. One thing I noticed is that when the U.S. government got heavily involved after 2008 is when things started falling apart for many companies. It is often said that government money in the form of loans and grants distorts the economics of the situation, creates bad incentives, and drowns out the signals from the free market. It seems it happened with much of the “green” investment as well.

The biggest losers, as I expected are biofuel companies. It is not that they didn’t have unique ideas or wonderful products, it is just that they could not scale up and compete with cheap natural gas, government supported grain ethanol, or the motivation of the solar/EV crowd. Biofuels could still have a place during our transition to cleaner energy future, but it probably is not a good long-term solution.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Technology

Before I get into some of the main topics for today’s blog post, I just wanted to mention another weather blog that has similar content to ours here at StormTrak9. It is called “State of Occlusion” and can be found here: http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/catching-up-tomas-snow-links-climate-change-hail-video/ If you can’t get enough of a “weather fix” here in the weather blog, you might want to check that one out from time-to-time.

The biggest issue on my mind today is the Chevy Volt. As you know, I have followed closely the development of electric vehicles over the last few years. I have been hoping to see a low cost option arrive before one of my old gas vehicles konks-out. Unfortunately, the cost of most electric vehicles is out of my price range – including the Chevy Volt. The closest to my price range is the Aptera 2e and the Nissan Leaf (I am not including tricked-out golf carts but these are an affordable option for driving short distances). Other than cost, up until this week, I really didn’t have much reason at this point to prefer one brand over another. I am just happy to see the potential for cleaner air with the adoption of electric vehicles in the U.S. The sooner we are all driving electric vehicles, the sooner we can get rid of all the days with Air Quality Alerts – like today (in effect through 4pm).

Up until this week, I was just as happy to see the progress of the Chevy Volt as any other electric vehicle, but no longer. Previously, I shared a rather sour analysis of the Volt from one side of the political spectrum and now comes another jaw-dropper: GM (maker of the Volt) will not have to pay taxes for years to come. The GM bailout has already cost taxpayers billions and billions of dollars. The government rebate (while stimulating the purchase of electric vehicles – which could be viewed as a good thing) is also going to cost taxpayers an enormous sum. Now taxpayers are essentially going to pick up the tab for billions and billions and billions and billions of future tax revenue that GM will not be paying. I can no longer write glowingly about the Volt. When I see start-up companies like Think, Zap, Aptera, and Teslaputting their own (and private investor) money into their companies to get this movement off the ground, that is worth more praise. When I see the idealism and passion of some of the people building the new EVs it makes me want to cheer. Some of these entrepreneurs are taking great risks and should be rewarded if they produce a great product. Not to mention all the other car companies and their workers who are battling against GM and all the government money. So no more coverage of the Volt. I won’t spend time producing ”bad” opinions about GM and the Volt, but I won’t be sharing any press releases either. I know the workers at GM will not be happy with this opinion but it is how I feel about the Volt at this point in time. I have to be honest.

New Mazda Engine

I would prefer to make my next car an electric, but if the price it too high, there are still some other money and fuel saving options on the market. My current gas engine gets about 37 mpg. Could you believe that there are new gas engines coming onto the market that could double that number? Just when you thought fuel efficiency was tapped-out, along comes Mazda with a new car+engine design that tops out at 70 mpg!

Lastly, for those of you who entered the 1st snowfall contest, it still looks like a potential for an inch or two of snow on Saturday. If we get 1 inch in Wausau on Saturday, it will be the end of the contest and we will draw the big winners next week on Wake-Up Wisconsin.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Snowmelt 2010, Technology

Taking a look at Kristen’s blog post from yesterdayyou will find a list of 2 record high temps that were tied on Sunday and the list of potential records in Northcentral Wisconsin today. Not only is there a potential high temperature here in Wausau today, we most likely will break the record for the warmest low temperature for May 24th. The old record was 63 set back in 1975 and 1991. The record high today for Wausau is 89 set back in 1928. I am forecasting 90.

Feeling the warm weather outside might have you thinking the snow is gone from Rib Mountain but that is not the case. I, of course picked today’s date as the final day for snow on Rib Mountain, as did 68 other people who entered the contest. Unfortunately, they will not be winners of the R-store gift cards. The one remaining big pile of snow is melting fast but will likely last a few more days. If it doesn’t melt early this week with high temps in the 80s and low 90s, it might last into the weekend because some cooler weather is likely by late this week. At least one computer model is forecasting high temps only in the 60s by Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Wouldn’t that just be typical Murphy’s Law for Wisconsin weather – a big cooldown just in time for the big holiday weekend. It is only one computer model (the GFS) predicting such a drastic change, so I am still hedging toward 70 degree weather instead. I’ll keep you up to date on any changes throughout the week.

Usually when we go from hot and humid to cooler and drier weather we end up with a period of thunderstorms – often times severe during this time of year. This time around we will have a 40% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday but the chances of severe weather appear fairly low at this time. If we don’t get rain Tuesday night into Wednesday then chances for rain look pretty low until early next week. If you need to water your garden you will want to watch the rain potential closely and slot a little time for watering later this week in case we don’t get much Tuesday evening.

With potential record high temps today, no doubt the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) story will come to the forefront in a few media outlets. It continues to be an interesting story because the evolution of the “crisis” and the counter trends continues as I expected. Every media headline that proclaims devastation, death, and doom-and-gloom can be balanced with headlines describing new cleaner technology and efficient societal operation. Today we can read “Small Mammals Will Have it Tougher in a Warmer Climate” and “2010 the Warmest Year so Far” and on the opposite side, “Tesla Hooks Up With Toyota”, “New Process Creates Cheaper Solar Cells With Compound Semiconductors, (on both sides of the Atlantic)”, “New Airplane Design Could Reduce Fuel Usage by up to 70%“, “Ecomotors Has Designed a Diesel Car That Could Get up to 100 mpg, (and they have gotten a new round of funding)”.

Will progress in “green-tech” and efficiency head off any theoretical future warming of the planet? Will cheap solar panels and long range electric cars arrive soon enough? I tend to think so, and that is why I typically discount the most extreme AGW Armageddon scenarios.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Records, Snowmelt 2010

It is the biggest snowstorm for most of the viewing area since Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but it won’t seemlike that big of a snowstorm. The reason? The snow will be of a long duration but remain light. It is already snowing this morning and the snow will continue all the way through Tuesday evening. Accumulations will only be a dusting during the daylight hours today. Tonight about 1 to 3 inches will accumulate with the lightest amounts in the northwoods and the heavier amounts (3 inches) in the south. Another 1 to 3 inches is likely on Tuesday with the heavier amounts again in the south and the lighter amounts (1 inch) in the Northwoods. So there could be totals approaching 6 inches around Necedah, Adams, and Wautoma. I am forecasting 2 to 3 inches here in Wausau – just enough to get out the shovel. The heaviest amounts of snow will be in southeastern Wisconsin and along the lakeshore where there will be lake-enhanced snowfall Cities such as Sheboygan, West Bend, and Racine could end up with around 10 inches of snow. There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY in effect from noon today through 6pm Tuesday for Jackson, Juneau, Adams, and Monroe counties. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect from 6pm today through 6pm Tuesday for Wood, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Shawano, and Menominee counties. After the snowstorm it looks like quiet weather for the rest of the work week and maybe even all of next week as well. High temps will generally be about 5 degrees below most of this week, and then climb back closer to normal next week.

Alternative Energy News:

As you know, I follow the alternative energy news closely because it is intertwined with anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory. I am particularly excited about the prospect of electric vehicles. There are many advantages to electric cars from less air pollution, to lower maintenance cost, to less noise. The drawbacks are the driving range (on one charge) and the price. One company that made a big splash in the electric vehicle (EV) market is Tesla. You could say that they are the darling of the industry and they successfully sold out their inventory of the high-end Tesla Roadster. However, there are only so many people in the world (such as A-list celebs in LA) that have the money to buy a Roadster (approximately $110,000). Word on the street is that Tesla will stop producing the Roadster later this year and begin producing the Model S sedan. The Model S will sell for $60,000 to $70,000. Some people who have scrutinized the finances of Tesla claim they are not in a good position to remain solvent for an extended period into the future. They are living off a cash infusion from Daimler ($50 million) and a government loan of $465 million. They are also preparing for an IPO that will raise around $100 million. They will be in a tough spot with no additional sales of the Roadster and with the Model S not arriving until late 2011. I hope they survive as I think it would be a sign of health in the EV market.

Staying on the theme of challenges facing the EV market, road tests in real environments have shown that the batteries in the cars lose about 20 to 30 percent of their capacity in cold weather. Users are also finding that if they need to run the radio, the heater, or even the windshield wipers, they drain the battery and reduce the range of the car significantly. There are of course ways to conserve electricity when driving, but not without some degree of discomfort – like no heat and no radio. Better batteries will be needed in order to not only boost the range of EVs but also make sure people can use the amenities.

When it comes to EVs people are not only talking about the roadways but the skies as well. In fact, there is a large electric plane factory under construction in China as we speak. The argument in favor of electric planes versus jet planes is very similar to the situation with cars. Electric planes are quieter, they pollute less, and they are more efficient (as much as 4 times as efficient!). The big drawback is the batteries. Batteries are heavy and reduce the range of flight. In order to get around this, some people envision tiny electric airports locatedin urban areas that connect destinations less than 250 miles apart (like from Wausau to Green Bay or Madison). The airports could be located closer to residential areas because there would be hardly any noise or pollution. For longer flights, you would still have to travel to a big airport and hop on a jet plane. It will be interesting to see how the E-planes turn out. The airline industry is mature and unfortunately resistant to change. I think it will take quite a bit of outside pressure in order to make E-planes a reality.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Winter Weather

Brian mentioned the tricky temperature forecast in the last blog entry and I will expound upon it a bit more.

Not Much Ice on Lake Superior

It was really strange to have the high temperature last Thursday (the 7th) end up warmer than the high temperature yesterday. It was 25 vs. 24. Why such consternation over one degree? Because many signs pointed to the opposite. Many signs pointed to highs in the teens last Thursday and the 30s yesterday. Despite all of our high tech tools, the weather still brings a few curve balls every year. As Brian mention previously the air in the low level of the atmosphere (anywhere from 3,000 to 6,000 feet) was much colder last week. There was a real arctic air mass in the region. Those atmospheric temps were sitting at about 10 F last week Thursday. We also had a gusty north wind and mostly cloudy skies. These signs would usually point to a day colder than 25 F at the surface.

Fast-forward to this Tuesday and the atmospheric temps (3,000 to 6,000 feet) were between 40 and 50 F, we had a southwest wind, and partly sunny skies. These signs in January would usually point toward highs in the 30s.

So how can this be explained? While those atmospheric temps (3,000 to 6,000 feet and higher) usually presage a trend in surface temps, this is not always the case. A north wind usually means colder weather, but this is not always the case. Sunshine usually means warmer temps, but other factors sometimes come in to play. The one factor that appears to have thrown me for a loop – and something I should have realized earlier – is that there is not much ice on Lake Superior. It is mostly open and that water temperature is above 32 F. The north (arctic) wind last week traveled over the open waters and picked up some warmth. This is what most likely led to warmer than expected high temps. If our wind had been more northwesterly or westerly (not going over the lake as much) our low and high temps might have been 10 to 15 degrees colder.

Temperatures in Minnesota and Iowa DIDget very cold last week. Low temps were -20 to -30 in Minnesota for several days in a row. Low temps were routinely as low as -10 in Iowa. In addition to this, there is snowcover over a large portion of the Midwest. The snow cover is the greatest I have seen in a few years. So even though we have a southwest wind, that wind is getting cooled down by the very cold snow pack. If the low temps out to our west and south last week were only in the 20s then this cooling effect would probably not be as strong. Also, the warmer air above is not mixing down to the surface. A stronger wind from the southwest might help “mix” this upper air with the surface air, but it doesn’t look like this will happen much over the next few days.

Even though we have a lot of snow cover and clouds might linger more than expected, temps over the next few days should still reach the low to mid 30s. In fact, it still looks like the El Nino driven weather pattern could last 10 to 12 more days. It might be the last week of the month before we have another shot of cold air and snowfall. The latest CPC 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows a very rare 80% chance of above normal temps for Northcentral Wisconsin.

About the clouds; this morning we have a low layer of clouds hanging around the entire area except for Juneau, Adams, and Waushara counties in the far south. These clouds will be slow to break up, but I still expect some sunshine during the afternoon. As more snow melts over the next couple days, these low clouds and fog might become more persistent. If the sun comes out this afternoon you should be sure to enjoy it because if the low clouds become “locked in” near the surface, we might not see the sun much at all for the next 7 to 10 days.

Alternative Energy News:

The Detroit Auto show usually brings a lot of interesting news about new “green” technology and this year is no exception.

Mini-Prius Concept

Fortuitously, some of the news also covers Peak Oil, a topic that I revisited over the last couple of days. Toyota continues to push hybrids and alternative fuel vehicles and they recently unveiled a cool “mini” Prius.According to president of Toyota Motor Sales, they are pursuing alternative fuel vehicles because of Peak Oil concerns within the next 10 to 20 years.

Tesla Roadster

Not only are hybrids important for lowering pollution and moving away from oil, electric vehicles are also an option. Most of the electric vehicles currently on the market are rather expensive because the advanced batteries that run them are expensive. Good thing the car and battery companies are constantly working to improve performance and cost metrics. Newly announced, Panasonic is delivering new batteries to Tesla for use in the Tesla Roadster. These lithium-nickel batteries can hold 30% more energy and will cost less. A win-win for electric vehicles. The only problem is that they need to be rigorously tested in real world conditions before they make it into the wider market.

Deer in Snow

Lastly, here is neat viewer picture from Rib Mountain State Park, taken by Bob Rode. Ever wonder where the deer go when it snows? For the most part, they stay out in the snow as seen in this picture. Sometimes they might find refuge under a pine or other evergreen tree.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Peak Oil, Viewer pictures, Winter Weather

We are still about 10 days away from our next monthly El Nino update (there are weekly updates but in my view the weekly variations do not accurately represent the long term trend) and the weather pattern is starting to look more like an El Nino pattern, which makes me wonder if it has strengthened in the last couple weeks. An El Nino pattern for the U.S. would be when the jet stream flows zonally (west to east) across the country – basically straight across with no bends or curves (areas where storms form). For most of October we have seen a very amplified (non-zonal) jet stream flow. This has routinely brought cold air from the north/arctic into Northcentral Wisconsin. There are hints (no guarantee) that a zonal jet stream pattern and warmer than normal weather will develop during the second week of November and stick around for a while. If it does stick around a couple of weeks, it could be a sign of things to come for the winter. We will know more when the next El Nino update is released.

Alternative Energy News:

The Volt might have an uphill climb to claim a large market share of EVs but at least it is now out climbing hills on the freeway. The first beta-Volts recently took a drive from Michigan to West Virginia to find out how they perform in real world situations.

While the Volt is taking its “first steps”, the Tesla Roadster is setting records. During the Global Green Challenge in Australia, a Tesla Roadster traveled 313 miles on one charge. That is pretty awesome considering the current battery technology and that the stated range on one charge is only 240 miles. Maybe they had the wind at their back. Now all we need is for the price to come down.

One of the most expensive parts of the Tesla (and Volt for that matter) is the battery. The lithium ion batteries are the best choice right now but do not produce a super range for the price. What might help is lithium air batteries – which I have discussed in the blog before – but they still have some technological and safety hurdles to overcome. What is closer at hand is zinc-air batteries. A Swiss company has developed a new zinc-air battery that will theoretically be half the cost of lithium ion batteries while delivering 3 times the power. I am not sure how this will translate to the range on EVs, but it has the potential to be a game-changer in the short term. The company is so far only producing very small button batteries and it will probably take a couple years before they have car-sized batteries. Batteries (or energy storage technologies in general) were the lion-share a list of 5 things needed for an energy revolution – compiled by the Wall Street Journal.

Something else in the prototype stage is the Nissan Landglider vehicle, which looks like one of those concept cars that will never make it onto the highway. However, rumor has it that it might be picked up by Infinity. The prototype fits 2 people but rear-impact safety requirements will likely mean it is a 1-seater if it ever comes out for sale. Some other interesting vehicles were recently displayed at the Tokyo Auto Show.

On the wind energy front it isn’t as rosy or simple as it looks. Developers such as Boone Pickens have found red tape is restricting more building of wind turbines. What is needed are new high voltage power lines from the remote wind turbines to urban areas. Pickens had trouble getting local officials to allow new power lines and permits for new wind turbines. Some environmentalists are also concerned about the impact of turbines on birds and bats. Although the problem is not huge, it is not known what long term effects will occur on local populations. Another negative effect on wind turbine operation I was not aware of is icing. Apparently it is a problem in the midwest. Icing causes the turbine to become unbalanced and operate inefficiently. If there is enough ice, the turbine might stop altogether. A possible solution: put heating elements in the blades.

Fuel cells and the “hydrogen economy” may have fallen out of the limelight for the time being, but the US Navy is still experimenting with this form of clean propulsion. They have been testing a fuel cell plane recently. The very small spy-type autonomous aircraft (the Ion Tiger) flew just over 23 hours on fuel cell power alone.

Not only are alternative energy technologies coming to big things like cars, batteries packs, planes, and wind turbines, they are making their way into everyday products as well. A backpack that had flexible solar panels was recently displayed at the Hong Kong technology show. The solar panel is meant for charging things like mp3 players and cell phones when you are not near an outlet.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, ENSO Update

First an update on yesterday’s electric vehicle news: I forgot to mentin that the world’s leading electric sportscar maker (Tesla) has turned a profit.

Tesla Roadster

This is the first step needed for a more wider distribution of alternative vehicles. If a company does not make a profit, it will fail. If not today then tomorrow or next year. The bad news is that analysts are not too sure Tesla can keep it up for the next couple of quarters. They had a surge of orders that have been recently filled and it is uncertain whether that level of sales can continue.

Another follow up on a weather theme I have been tracking for a couple years now: water shortages. For the longest time, most of the world’s water problems were being blamed on AGW, and water shortages would become very severe in the near future. Sometimes a nod would be given to over-consumption (which seems to be the main driver of water problems). Here is an article that does not mention AGW, but rather pins the tail on the donkey in northern India. Northern India is facing major water problems in the future because they have been taking out too much in the recent past. Ground water levels are declining a foot per year. Scientists were able to quantify the decline in water by measuring changes in gravity with the GRACE satellite. You wouldn’t think a satellite could measure such small changes in gravity due to changes in underground water storage but it is very sensitive.

And now a follow up on the drought situation in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Drought

I can tell you things are still a bit dry, because I was out watering a couple of my gardens yesterday. The rain during the first week of August really helped out but this warmer weather is drying things out rather quickly. The latest US Drought Monitorshows a slight improvement in Wisconsin. This is mainly due to the increase in rainfall during the first week of August and the heavy downpours in central and southern Wisconsin last weekend. We still have a long way to go and not too much widespread rain is in the forecast. There is a slight chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Friday and then a 40% chance of thunderstorms from Sunday night into Monday morning. Sadly, it looks like another bad year for wild blackberries (one of my favorite berries).

Some of the rain and thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin last weekend provided an opportunity for some scary viewer photographs.

Pic By Suzan O

Suzan O’Keefe snapped these photos of an ominous shelf cloud (a type of arcus cloud) last weekend while driving north from Madison to Stevens Point.

Pic By Suzan O

 It looks like a very severe storm but a shelf cloud like this is not always indicative of severe weather. In this case, some of the storms in southern Wisconsin did produce high winds and heavy rainfall. The shelf cloud in this case was very low to the ground because the humidity was very high. Read about arcus clouds here. See more cool arcus cloud pictures here.

Speaking of cool photographs, take a look at this gallery of some of the biggest asteroid impacts that have scarred the earth.

And lastly, another story I am following – the Lunar X-prize. In this article there is a link to an image gallery that shows many of the current rover designs that are hoping to win the millions from Google and the X-Prize foundation.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Viewer pictures

More rain. Just what I like to see. I haven’t caught to much flak for being positive about the rain….yet. I suppose if the Spring continues to be colder than normal with more cloudy days than sunny days, then people will start to complain. So far, the rain is beneficial (putting a small dent in the severe drought). We are certainly no where near the point where we would have to worry about flooding or delayed planting of crops. Today’s rainfall (.25 to .50 inches) should put us above normal for the month of March. Time to celebrate! Normal precipitation for March is 1.92 inches and we should end up around 2.25 inches. Rainy windy weather of course means that March is going out like a lion. Did it come in like a lamb? Not really. March 1st was a sunny day with not much wind, but the high temperature was only 16. It is hard to say any day was a “lamb” when the high temperature is only 16.

High temps today should reach the upper 30s, which means the sleet and snow during the morning should turn over to light rain in the afternoon. Temps will be cool enough in the Northwoods for some of the mixed precipitation too hang on a bit longer and therefore a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY will continue for areas north of Marathon county through early evening. All forms of precipitation will become much lighter tonight but will not come to a complete end until Wednesday night. Cool weather will persist through Thursday, then we will have a brief warm-up into the 40s on Friday and Saturday before another storm moves into the Midwest for Sunday and Monday. This next storm system could produce heavy rain and snow in parts of Wisconsin. I know, no one wants to here the word snow in April, but it is certainly not unprecedented. There is an old saying that it has to snow twice on the tulips before winter is completely over, which means we will typically have two different snow events in April – in Wisconsin. Overall, cooler than normal weather will probably hang on until the middle of April. No 60 degree weather anytime soon.

At least we are not in the same boat as North and South Dakota. They have received their second blizzard in the last week. Here is a photo of the Bismarck area taken by a relative of Connie Bryant. They had over 10 inches of snow yesterday.

Alternative Energy News:

I have been following the electric car industry for a couple of years now and a big event just crossed the wires yesterday. Tesla has revealed its all electric sedan. Here is the good news: while the Tesla Roadster costs a bit over $100,000, the basic model Tesla sedan (Model S) will retail for $57,000 – or so it is planned. Factor in a $7,500 rebate from the government and you might be able to purchase the Model S for just under $50,000 – that is of course assuming the U.S. government does not go bankrupt before the it rolls off the assembly line. Therein lies the bad news. It is not scheduled for sale until 2011. Darn. The interesting thing about the price is that it is not much more than the rumored proposed price of the Chevy Volt – about $45,000. Why buy a Volt when you can get more performance, better styling, and longer range with the Model S while only paying a few thousand more?

In other news, it looks like Mazda will not be developing their own hybrid vehicle, because they don’t have the cash needed to invest in a whole new model right now. Still they do plan on increasing efficiency by making their cars lighter and developing better engines and transmissions. Nissan on the other hand has pushed their plans for an all electric vehicle up by two years. Looks like they are on a schedule to sell an EV around the same time Tesla rolls out the Model S (2011).

In solar news - the world’s third (large) solar thermal power plant is being built in China. Every year more megawatts are being generated by solar and wind power. Even through the economic downturn, the solar business is hanging on. With every new development of alternative energy the apocalyptic warnings of AGW theorists grows a little less frightening. Like I have mentioned in the past, our energy situation is changing. It is extremely unlikely that we will continue on a “business as usual” course with fossil fuels for the next 91 years. It is the ”business as usual” projection that is used to create all the forecasts of extreme warming and devastation of the earth through 2100.

Solar thermal technology could also be used to desalinate water – helping to alleviate problems caused by the lack of fresh water. A test facility is being built in Australia to find out how efficient solar thermal is with regards to desalinating water. They could use this type of technology in California, where population growth is causing a shortage of fresh water. China is also experiencing some bad water shortages. In order to store desalinated water (or other fresh water) maybe they could use hydrophobic (waterproof) sand.This is a new nanotech product that could be used in many ways. In the Middle East they are going to experiment with growing rice. Now that would be an accomplishment – growing rice in the desert. The idea is to line the bottom of cultivated land with the waterproof sand to prevent seepage. I am sure it will have to undergo some extensive testing first because the sand is a slightly unnatural product. Some natural sand particles are hydrophobic, but not to the extent that this one is.

Then again maybe you could go without sand altogehter and grow your vegetables in gravel. That is what farmer Sergio Roque Monteiro of Cape Verde is doing. It is a version of hydroponic farming that uses a recycled stream of water with nutrients to keep the plants growing. He claims to use less water and get better vegetables with this method. Check it out.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Drought, Spring, Winter Weather

I was promising an AGW entry today, but once again I got sidetracked with some other work, so I will have to put it off another day. The main gist is that even if all of the forecasts of temps warming by a few degrees are completely accurate, it still doesn’t necessarily mean environmental Armageddon and the death of most of the human race (as is being predicted almost everyday now).

Our present weather situation is warming up and temps should stay at or a little above normal all the way through Tuesday of next week. The biggest problem will be a storm system moving through the area over the weekend. It looks like some rain will develop on Saturday afternoon in the southern half of the area and it could be over a quarter inch. The rain will gradually spread farther north and change to snow on Sunday. Snow amounts could be in the 3 to 6 inch range as things look now, and it will be a heavy wet snow because temps will be above freezing. Overall, it could turn out to be a rather sloppy slushy weekend. Another storm moving through the upper Midwest on Tuesday of next week could again bring some significant rain and snow to the area. After Tuesday’s storm it looks like we will have a couple of colder days when temps only reach the low 20s.

Good news in the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought conditions have improved very slightly in Wisconsin, however, we still have a long way to go. Hopefully the next two storms will dump a lot of precipitation. I don’t want to enter the growing season with a huge precipitation deficit. Another area of the country that is seeing even more recovery is California. Almost the entire state is still experiencing a precipitation deficit, however, the worst areas (shaded red) have seen improvement over the last week. Even with the recent precipitation, California is still under a water emergency.

Lastly, a review and pictures of the Tesla electric sports car. I have been following this roll out for a while – hoping for success  – so that other car companies follow the lead and we get rid of gasoline vehicles eventually. It is not that my gasoline car doesn’t run well – it does – but it is relatively expensive to maintain and it causes pollution.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Winter Weather