Before getting into any other subjects, I should bring everyone up to date on the latest El Nino/La Nina trend, which is one of the  more important ocean/atmosphere circulations we monitor. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates that the La Nina from this past Winter has ended. The central Pacific ocean surface temperatures are now basically neutral and are expected to stay that way for the next couple of months. By this Fall the computer model forecasts indicate a trend toward a weak El Nino. This is important. Almost every time we have an El Nino in the tropical Pacific we have warmer than normal Winter conditions here in Wisconsin and lower than normal snowfall.

CPC Model Projection

The stronger the El Nino, the warmer our Winter could be. Right now it looks like a weak El Nino will form at best, but it is early in the year, so there could be some notable changes yet before Fall arrives.

_________________________________

And now a little follow-up on a subject that was much more prevalent last year but many people seem to have forgot about. As has been mentioned in many outlets outside of the mainstream media, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is not over and it is worse than thought. Spent fuel pools (as well as other parts of the reactor) are a grave danger to the U.S. according to at least one Senator who visited the site.

_________________________________________

In another follow-up, I sometimes bring a bevy of news and research that shows things are not as bad as originally portrayed, either for the present or into the future. Last year I blogged about how the trash in the Pacific is not as bad as originally reported. Now this year we have a finding that declares the trash in the ocean could be significant, just not in the way we might have thought in the past. A oceanographer researching in the Pacific found a lot of small particles of plastic a bit below the surface. These types of particles would normally float on the surface and be visible but wave and wind action drives them a few feet below the surface. Past surveys of ocean garbage generally only skimmed the surface water. Smaller particles could more easily find their way into the food chain and cause some disruptions. What is not know is whether these particles are all over the ocean. Maybe they are only in certain areas near manufacturing centers or shipping lanes, such as southeast Asia.

Also, in the not-as-bad-as-originally-proclaimed theme, during the past couple decades the AGW discussion has been peppered with proclamations about “increased storminess”, “more hurricanes”, “more floods”, even more tornadoes. In the case of tornadoes, every time there is a big outbreak, someone usually speculates as to whether the seemingly increasing number of tornadoes is due to AGW. In another, maybe it is not as bad as originally portrayed, the case for tornadoes is not clear cut. There are many factors in the atmosphere that have to be “just right” and these factors might not all come together to produce more tornadoes in the future even if we end up with some theoretical ranges in warming from AGW.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, ENSO Update, Environment, Oceans, Tornadoes

But this time it’s not down south or in the Plains.  Now New England has been dealt a first-hand lesson in how devastating tornadoes can be.  Though New England is not a tornado-prone region, one chilling similarity is that yet again, an American city has suffered a direct blow from a tornado. 

Springfield, Massachusetts watched in shock as a tornado ripped through the city’s center during the evening rush hour tonight (Wednesday 1 June).  This is an area of the country where even tornado warning sirens systems aren’t common.  According to local media reports the last tornado to touchdown in the state was three years ago.  

Tonight’s deadly tornado is a sobering reminder that nobody is immune from tornadoes.  We’ve been hit several times in Central Wisconsin this year.  Don’t let down your guard and assume it’s over.  If you don’t have one already, buy a weather radio.  Package up a survival kit with water, food, blankets, shoes, whatever you need to survive.  And above all, make a plan so you and your family know what to do.  Remember to think about the unexpected–if the storm hits while you’re at home maybe you have a plan.  But what about if you’re out shopping or at school?  Be prepared for everything the weather can throw at us, it seems like all bets are off during this unbelievable tornado season.

Find out more about the damage in Springfield by looking at the official preliminary storm spotters reports to the National Weather Service:  http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR&format=CI&version=2&glossary=0.

Posted under Natural Disasters, Nature, Records, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes

The reports keep coming in,the three day outbreak that lasted from Thursday to Sunday will likely go down in record books.  Atleast 43 have been killed, 21 along in North Carolina.  The destruction is endless, and the stories of survival and blessing to be alive heard from Mississippi to the Carolina’s.  Although it is great to see pictures and video I urge people to please use caution and be SAFE. 

This is one video with great coverage but the man shooting is lucky to be alive! It was taken in Wilson, NC.  This was a city that was in my viewing area when I worked in NC.  It’s crazy to see so many areas that I am familiar with hit by the storms. For those of you who don’t know my job before coming here was a Meteorologist is Greenville, NC.

Here is just one article taking about the destruction including a Loews, I saw video from the store yesterday and I am amazed that a building so massive can be torn apart.

Here is a slide show,make sure to check out number 7 with a picture of the once Loews store.

Here is another article with several survival stories. 

There are so many articles out there if you want to read more.  It is sure a heartbreaking story.

——

On a little more happy note… have you ever read Timeline by Michael Creighton or watched Star Trek? Ever dreamed of being transported to another place or time by just a flick of a finger or a machine? Well if you have we may be one step closer to getting there.

Although teleporting is still way in the future some scientists transported light.  Even though that sounds small it is a big step in qquantum physics and mechanics.  In theory this has been possible but to actually take advantage of a piece of physics called entanglement is pretty significant step. 

The easiest way to explain what happens is that you basically copy a person and then recreate them in a different place.  There have been several books written about this including my favorite Timeline ( very entertaining but also informative on the subject!).  So far we have only been able to teleport light but this is little magic would mean that the theories are actually possible on a very small scale. 

I am by no means an expert in this type of science but this article is worth a read. It goes into more detail for the everyday person.  What a ride it would be if we could all be teleported!

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Nature, Science, Severe Weather, Storms, Tornadoes, Travel, Uncategorized, Viewer pictures, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

Severe storms ripped through the Mid Atlantic today causing a tornadoes to be widespread.  There are already 2 deaths being reported today in North Carolina from a twister.  This is the same line of storms that yesterday ripped through the Southeast yesterday and cause death and destruction across several states.

So far from this massive storm we have seen 26 deaths and it is possible that number will climb when all is said and done.  In three days we have seen over 150 reports of tornadoes from Mississippi to Washington D.C! This is what is considered a high risk day, only a handful of these come every year.  The tornadoes were large and lasted for a lengthy period of time through several states. 

Today will likely break records especially in North Carolina, one of the hardest hit states.  The record day tornado outbreak in Carolina’s history was March 28, 1984, with 22 Tornadoes, 57 deaths, and injured 800 people.

With advanced warnings and new equipment I am positive the death toll will not exceed that day but it is likely they will break the record of tornadoes or come close.  Check out all the reports with this website.

Here is an article that continues to be updated with the latest findings.

Btw, the storm causing all the havoc across the south is the same storm bringing snow to our area.  Unfortunately there is still more snow in that forecast this week.  I am pretty sure Mother Nature needs to check the calender.  Today I was already thinking about Christmas becauseof big wet heavy flakes.  Yesterday I was thinking about carving pumpkins because it felt like fall! I know one thing, I am ready for spring or summer to be here and not this unseasonable weather!

A special thanks to @wxbrad for all his tweets today in North Carolina.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Severe Weather, Spring, Storms, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

I have been awake since around 1:30 this am and the big story overnight has been related to the weather.  We are seeing a massive storm across the Nation’s midsection.  This storm is producing severe storms across the Central Plains and blizzard conditions in the Dakotas and mountains. 

This storm overnight produced deadly tornadoes, so far up to 6 people are dead in Oklahoma and Arkansas, including kids and an infant.  Two in Tushka, Ok and four in western Arkansas. 

The Oklahoma tornado was 7 miles long and in addition to the two deaths caused 25 injuries.  There were numerous reports of other tornadoes nearby and storms producing 4 inch hail ( softball size).  Here is all the info about the severe weather in the Heartland.

Here is also a multi-vortex tornado video. You can see two or even three drop from the cloud.  Pretty impressive and scary at the same time!

The destruction and deaths are just a reminder how Mother Nature can strike at anytime.  Although just five days ago we saw major destruction we are so blessed to be spared lives.   

I saw this headline today “Winter just won’t leave the Midwest”.  I agree! We have Winter Weather Advisories in effect for Ashland, Iron, Vilas, Onieda and Price counties until tomorrow morning.  In this area we could see up to 3″ of a slushy wet mix by tomorrow morning.  It will cause slick roads and hazardous travel.  Hopefully the snow will melt thanks to temps making it into the mid 40′s. 

After watching several tornado videos and aftermath I needed a little pick me up.  This video is awesome!It is a time lapse from San Francisco to Paris from the window of an airplane.  I guess they didn’t obey the “all electronics off” rule! I have to say it is really neat to watch, especially the Northern Lights around :30 into the video. 

Have a great Friday! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Natural Disasters, Science, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Storms, Summer, Tornadoes, Weather History, Weather NEws, Weather Safety, Winter Weather, World Weather

A “Spring-like” storm is making its way through the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley.  It has already spawned warning across several states including Kansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky.  There are several areas under a moderate risk of severe storms which would include damaging winds, hail and tornadoes.  In addition most areas are going to see heavy down pours which will cause flash flooding. 

Here are the reports so far including two tornado reports in Kansas.

Here is the map just after 7 o’clock on Sunday night.  You can see that there is two main cores from this storm.  The first spreads from Kansas to Illinois, the southern end of this storm is spawning tornadoes.  There is another cluster of severe storms from Kentucky into Ohio although this is not as strong it still has the possibility to spawn a severe storms and especially flooding across the Ohio Valley.  In this area from an inch to two inches could fall which could make rivers and lakes over flow their banks.

In case you were wondering this is the same storm that was suppose to bring snow to our area.  It did make a track farther to the south and has the possibility of bringing a wintry mix to the very southern section of the Badger state.  It will clear out by late morning as it is a fast moving storm and will be pushing into the Mid Atlantic by the afternoon. 

For us a quiet week is on tap, the next chance of snow is forecasted for Thursday.  Otherwise it will be partly to mostly sunny through Wednesday.

Have a good night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Spring, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

We have been so busy talking about the winter weather I don’t think we have mentioned the tornadoes this week! 

We saw rare tornadoes in the southern part of the Badger state on Monday.  You may remember we were seeing a mix across our area with mainly rain during the daytime.  To our south, two tornadoes, both EF 1 rated, hit near the Milwaukee area.  This occurred in afternoon- one around 3:30 pm and one at 4:00 pm.  The path of the one just after 3:30 pm was 4 miles in length and the one a half hour later was just over 11 miles.  Damage was seen along the paths, including trees knocked down, roofs blown off and signs torn apart.  For the entire write up you can click on this link.   Here is a pic of the damage :

These rare November tornadoes now make the total count in Wisconsin at 46.  This is the second most tornadoes ever recorded in the state of Wisconsin.  The most tornadoes occurred only 5 years ago in 2005, when we saw 62!  Based on data from 1971 -2000 on average Wisconsin sees 21 tornadoes.  So we saw double  the normal amount this year, the year with the most saw almost triple the average. 

Have a great holiday weekend. Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Severe Weather, Weather NEws

We’ll mark it down as another gorgeous day around the area.  Lots sunshine and temps in the mid 60′s, how could we ask for a better fall day? Looking ahead to this week we will see  a mini rollercoaster ride of temps.  We will go down and up and down and up.  That is because we will see several fronts push through.  There is still the possibility of seeing our first flakes around the area and that will occur Wed night into Thursday morning.  This will be the last front of the week.  It is quite possible that we could see a nice warm up by the end of the week.  Right now models are putting the temps in atleast the mid 50′s but I think its possible we could see 60′s looking at the temps above the surface.  This is still several days away so of course things could change.

Since we are talking about snow and 60′s being warm it seems odd to bring up tornadoes but the latest tornado count that officially came out ( October 13th) confirmed 43 tornadoes in Wisconsin.  This means we would tie the second most tornadoes in a year!  The last time we saw 43 with 1980 and the most occurred in 2005 at 62.  On the good side, we have only see 5 EF2 and no EF3, 4 or 5.

I wanted to share a few more pics of my trip.  We went to the Grand Canyon , Sedona and to a really cool place called Sunset Crater Volcano National Monument.  Try saying that 3 times fast.  The volcano is known as the most recent active volcano in Arizona.  And when they say latest they mean almost a 1000 years ago! At the park you can see ash, the hardened lava flows and cinders.  As my Mom and I say, its a hidden gem!

 Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Environment, forecast, Natural Disasters, Science, Travel, Viewer pictures, Weather NEws

A new radar in Puerto Rico maybe able to see tornadoes!

The Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensitive of the Atmosphere, an Engineering Research Center at University of Massachusetts Amherest thinks they have developed just that.  They have built radars that can look at atmospheric phenomena in the lower sections of the atmosphere beneath radars that we currently use in the United States.  For us we can look at rotation in a storm but can not see believe the clouds where the funnel would actually be coming from.  This would be an amazing discovery in the meteorological world!

If you can look into the lower parts of the lower atmosphere we could detect severe events sooner and in essence save lives or destruction.

Here is a pic of the new radar!

 I am going to be gone for a few days and one place I am going to go visit is the Grand Canyon.  I have never been there but have heard it is quite the site to see.  Here is an awesome slide show of all sorts of pictures.

Here is also a really interesting article about the discussion to just how old the Grand Canyon is.  A newer study says the Canyon maybe around 16 to 17 million years old! This differs quite a bit from the previous guesstimate of 6 millions years.  To find out exactly how they came up with this number check out this article. 

 Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Environment, Flooding, Science, Severe Weather, Travel, Weather NEws

Good Chilly Morning everyone! Brrrr it was cold.  I can’t seem to get it in my head that summer is kind of over ( not offffcially! ) but it sure feels like.  None the less I still busted out my flip flops and had some cold feet on the way to work.  I actually turned on my heater and was so happy that my coffee was roasting hot, probably to much since it burnt my tongue, ouch.  Anyway the point…last year we had a warm Sept, I think this year we will have an average if not below average year.  You win some you loose some! 

We finally received the Farmers Almanac report which is going for cold and dry.  Brian did a blog about that last night so check it out below.  This seems about right since we are switching more to a La Nina pattern compared to El Nino we had last year. 

I noticed last week both Justin and Brian blogged about the hype that Earl caused on the East coast last week.  As they mentioned it was probably the most built up hurricane to NOT make landfall on US soil.  What is ironic about this is that Hermine formed as a Tropical Storm right before making landfall on Mexico Tuesday night but was not hyped since it was a late bloomer.  However, this Tropical Storm, not hurricane has cause major issues in Texas and Oklahoma.  It brought torrential rains and spawned numerous tornadoes across the Lone Star state.  Here is a map of all the tornadoes and flooding reports.  

So far two deaths are being reported from the storm.  The Tropical Storm caused over 6-10 inches of rain in the Dallas area and to the west.  ( 6.2 inches reported at Dallas Love and at DFW 6.24 inches.  Fort Worth total was 7.2 inches.)  This caused major highways to be closed and over 100 high water rescues.   

Here is a good package about the flooding and water rescues.  They show how it came faster then emergency officials were prepared for.

Here is video and pictures of a tornado that touched down in Dallas. ( Really good coverage.)  I actually talked to a friend who lives right by Dallas Love when the tornado warning was going off next to her.  As they say in the package it was a sight not normally seen in the downtown area.  They are used to seeing severe weather but the city itself has been spared from tornadoes.  From doing a little research I am not 100% positive but I believe the last time downtown Dallas was hit was 1894.  The last time north Dallas was hit was 1978.    

Enjoy Fall! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics, Weather NEws