The task of keeping up with technological change gets harder by the day. One human brain (mine) just can’t grasp the complexity and rapid progress. Just the other day, I was mentioning the robotic transformation of manufacturing, Anthony commented about how microcontrollers are easier than ever to embed into almost everything, and now Toyota and Lexus are introducing driver assistance technology that gets us ever closer to self-driving cars. Of course, as blog readers should know, Google has been sending their autonomous cars out on to the highways for over a year now and their record – in real traffic – in California! - is flawless. This is something I keep bringing up, but I am not sure too many people appreciate, how close the roads are to be taken over by “robots”. It is not a question of function. The electronics, the sensors, and the software are already here. Audi already has a car that parks itself (with video). The only thing keeping self-driving cars from hitting the road are cost, laws, regulation, and fear. People are fearful that the “robots” cannot drive as well. I am not too worried. If the Google car can drive thousands of miles through traffic without an accident, that is better than most humans. Heck, robots have been flying planes and driving trains for decades now. Boats should not be much of a problem either. When you really think about it, most driving is not very difficult. The situations that require sophisticated manuevering on the part of the driver are few and far between.

On the cost front, Audi is already shrinking the parts needed to incorporate self-driving technology into cars. It will be expensive at first, but not out of the reach of typical wealthy early-adopters.

On the regulation front, lawyers are wrangling over liability, legal, and safety issues, but I am unsure why self-driving cars should not be regulated like other mass transportation. There are plenty of automated trains around the world. Getting into a self-driving car would be just like getting into a miniature passenger rail car or bus. The door opens, you sit down, the vehicle goes to your destination. The only difference is the driver. Instead of a person (bus driver), there is a “bot”. For self-driving cars, just as in the case of a bus, the “riders” are not legally liable for anything relating to “driver” error or vehicle malfunction. It is the company that built the car and developed the “robot” driver that should be legally liable when the car causes trouble. This is unless, the driver “takes the wheel” for whatever reason. Right now the laws in Nevada, California, and Florida assume that self-driving cars are a human-machine combo and the driver is still liable for everything. Let me tell you this, when I get a self-driving car, there is no way I will be driving it. What would be the point? The point is to relieve yourself from the burden of driving. I would much rather be talking, working, sleeping, or partying while the bot drives.

Of course, besides cars, “bots” (software and machines) are showing up everywhere.

• There is a humanoid robot on the ISS.
• Plenty of new robots are showing up at this year’s CES.
• Bots run the Internet and financial markets for the most part.
• We have mostly autonomous military airplanes and new land based quadruped robots almost ready for action.
• Here is one of the fastest recent robots, modeled after a cockroach.
• Bots have even been proposed for lifeguard duty.

NASA’s humanoid robotic astronaut

While most of these inventions and uses for bots are done for “good” (except for the military applications – which are designed to help destroy things), one cannot help but get a little uneasy feeling about how fast it is all developing. When self-driving cars arrive, you will always be tracked as the cars will be maintaining a near constant connection to the internet and will have very advanced recording devices – essentially a “black box” for the car. This has implications for privacy and freedom. There are also concerns about safety as so many machines and devices become connected and autonomous. Will some of these be hacked and used for nefarious purposes? Could someone kill you by hacking into your self-driving car?

And then we come back to the issue of jobs. Some people speculate that people will find new areas of work once robots take over most of the mundane and physical work to make the human world go ’round, but I don’t think most people will have the skills or knowledge for advanced “futuristic” jobs. There is a chance that most people could be left behind, as portrayed in this very good short science fiction story about the future (with a happy ending).

In the end, I accept that things change.  Even my profession will likely be automated away. Standing in the way of progress is a good way to get steam rolled, so I figure the best thing to do is to guide progress and stay informed as best as I can so that the future is brighter, no matter how things evolve.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Technology

Taking a look at Kristen’s blog post from yesterdayyou will find a list of 2 record high temps that were tied on Sunday and the list of potential records in Northcentral Wisconsin today. Not only is there a potential high temperature here in Wausau today, we most likely will break the record for the warmest low temperature for May 24th. The old record was 63 set back in 1975 and 1991. The record high today for Wausau is 89 set back in 1928. I am forecasting 90.

Feeling the warm weather outside might have you thinking the snow is gone from Rib Mountain but that is not the case. I, of course picked today’s date as the final day for snow on Rib Mountain, as did 68 other people who entered the contest. Unfortunately, they will not be winners of the R-store gift cards. The one remaining big pile of snow is melting fast but will likely last a few more days. If it doesn’t melt early this week with high temps in the 80s and low 90s, it might last into the weekend because some cooler weather is likely by late this week. At least one computer model is forecasting high temps only in the 60s by Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Wouldn’t that just be typical Murphy’s Law for Wisconsin weather – a big cooldown just in time for the big holiday weekend. It is only one computer model (the GFS) predicting such a drastic change, so I am still hedging toward 70 degree weather instead. I’ll keep you up to date on any changes throughout the week.

Usually when we go from hot and humid to cooler and drier weather we end up with a period of thunderstorms – often times severe during this time of year. This time around we will have a 40% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday but the chances of severe weather appear fairly low at this time. If we don’t get rain Tuesday night into Wednesday then chances for rain look pretty low until early next week. If you need to water your garden you will want to watch the rain potential closely and slot a little time for watering later this week in case we don’t get much Tuesday evening.

With potential record high temps today, no doubt the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) story will come to the forefront in a few media outlets. It continues to be an interesting story because the evolution of the “crisis” and the counter trends continues as I expected. Every media headline that proclaims devastation, death, and doom-and-gloom can be balanced with headlines describing new cleaner technology and efficient societal operation. Today we can read “Small Mammals Will Have it Tougher in a Warmer Climate” and “2010 the Warmest Year so Far” and on the opposite side, “Tesla Hooks Up With Toyota”, “New Process Creates Cheaper Solar Cells With Compound Semiconductors, (on both sides of the Atlantic)”, “New Airplane Design Could Reduce Fuel Usage by up to 70%“, “Ecomotors Has Designed a Diesel Car That Could Get up to 100 mpg, (and they have gotten a new round of funding)”.

Will progress in “green-tech” and efficiency head off any theoretical future warming of the planet? Will cheap solar panels and long range electric cars arrive soon enough? I tend to think so, and that is why I typically discount the most extreme AGW Armageddon scenarios.

Have a good Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Records, Snowmelt 2010

Brian mentioned the tricky temperature forecast in the last blog entry and I will expound upon it a bit more.

Not Much Ice on Lake Superior

It was really strange to have the high temperature last Thursday (the 7th) end up warmer than the high temperature yesterday. It was 25 vs. 24. Why such consternation over one degree? Because many signs pointed to the opposite. Many signs pointed to highs in the teens last Thursday and the 30s yesterday. Despite all of our high tech tools, the weather still brings a few curve balls every year. As Brian mention previously the air in the low level of the atmosphere (anywhere from 3,000 to 6,000 feet) was much colder last week. There was a real arctic air mass in the region. Those atmospheric temps were sitting at about 10 F last week Thursday. We also had a gusty north wind and mostly cloudy skies. These signs would usually point to a day colder than 25 F at the surface.

Fast-forward to this Tuesday and the atmospheric temps (3,000 to 6,000 feet) were between 40 and 50 F, we had a southwest wind, and partly sunny skies. These signs in January would usually point toward highs in the 30s.

So how can this be explained? While those atmospheric temps (3,000 to 6,000 feet and higher) usually presage a trend in surface temps, this is not always the case. A north wind usually means colder weather, but this is not always the case. Sunshine usually means warmer temps, but other factors sometimes come in to play. The one factor that appears to have thrown me for a loop – and something I should have realized earlier – is that there is not much ice on Lake Superior. It is mostly open and that water temperature is above 32 F. The north (arctic) wind last week traveled over the open waters and picked up some warmth. This is what most likely led to warmer than expected high temps. If our wind had been more northwesterly or westerly (not going over the lake as much) our low and high temps might have been 10 to 15 degrees colder.

Temperatures in Minnesota and Iowa DIDget very cold last week. Low temps were -20 to -30 in Minnesota for several days in a row. Low temps were routinely as low as -10 in Iowa. In addition to this, there is snowcover over a large portion of the Midwest. The snow cover is the greatest I have seen in a few years. So even though we have a southwest wind, that wind is getting cooled down by the very cold snow pack. If the low temps out to our west and south last week were only in the 20s then this cooling effect would probably not be as strong. Also, the warmer air above is not mixing down to the surface. A stronger wind from the southwest might help “mix” this upper air with the surface air, but it doesn’t look like this will happen much over the next few days.

Even though we have a lot of snow cover and clouds might linger more than expected, temps over the next few days should still reach the low to mid 30s. In fact, it still looks like the El Nino driven weather pattern could last 10 to 12 more days. It might be the last week of the month before we have another shot of cold air and snowfall. The latest CPC 6 to 10 day temperature outlook shows a very rare 80% chance of above normal temps for Northcentral Wisconsin.

About the clouds; this morning we have a low layer of clouds hanging around the entire area except for Juneau, Adams, and Waushara counties in the far south. These clouds will be slow to break up, but I still expect some sunshine during the afternoon. As more snow melts over the next couple days, these low clouds and fog might become more persistent. If the sun comes out this afternoon you should be sure to enjoy it because if the low clouds become “locked in” near the surface, we might not see the sun much at all for the next 7 to 10 days.

Alternative Energy News:

The Detroit Auto show usually brings a lot of interesting news about new “green” technology and this year is no exception.

Mini-Prius Concept

Fortuitously, some of the news also covers Peak Oil, a topic that I revisited over the last couple of days. Toyota continues to push hybrids and alternative fuel vehicles and they recently unveiled a cool “mini” Prius.According to president of Toyota Motor Sales, they are pursuing alternative fuel vehicles because of Peak Oil concerns within the next 10 to 20 years.

Tesla Roadster

Not only are hybrids important for lowering pollution and moving away from oil, electric vehicles are also an option. Most of the electric vehicles currently on the market are rather expensive because the advanced batteries that run them are expensive. Good thing the car and battery companies are constantly working to improve performance and cost metrics. Newly announced, Panasonic is delivering new batteries to Tesla for use in the Tesla Roadster. These lithium-nickel batteries can hold 30% more energy and will cost less. A win-win for electric vehicles. The only problem is that they need to be rigorously tested in real world conditions before they make it into the wider market.

Deer in Snow

Lastly, here is neat viewer picture from Rib Mountain State Park, taken by Bob Rode. Ever wonder where the deer go when it snows? For the most part, they stay out in the snow as seen in this picture. Sometimes they might find refuge under a pine or other evergreen tree.

Have a good Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, CPC Outlook, Peak Oil, Viewer pictures, Winter Weather