The forecasts are in….and it seems everyone is predicting an active hurricane season.  The season which officially begins June 1st and runs through Nov 30th is being forecasted as an above average one by both Colorado State University and AccuWeather who both came out with their forecasts this past week.  One of the main reasons we are seeing the above average forecasts is the warm ocean waters

AccuWeather came out with there forecast last week which calls for 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 of them major.

CSU is forecasting 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.  A major hurricane is a Cat 3 or higher with winds above 111 mph.

Last year we saw 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major storms.  The average in a years breaks down like this: 9-12 tropical storms, 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 major.  Last season was compared to the most active season, 2005.  If you talk to most folks though it didn’t seem active, espcially for people affected by the ‘canes.  The reason is most storms either stayed out to sea or affect areas besides the United States like Mexico and the Carribean islands. 

To read the full reports you can check out CSU description and AccuWeathers anyalisis.

Posted under Hurricanes, International Weather, Oceans, Seasonal Items, Severe Weather, Tropics, Weather History, Weather NEws

The strongest typhoon this year, Megi, in the Pacific is bearing down on the Philippines.  The winds are sustained at near 180 mph but have been as high as 190 mph! This is as strong as the major Category 5 hurricane for us.   It will likely bring wide spread catastrophic damage across the Islands. Heavy rain and destructive winds will be the biggest predators from this system to the islands.  The typhoon will likely weaken as it moves over the Philippines northern island, Luzon.

With the 20 inches or more that are forecasted for islands, landslides will also be possible and likely.  I think that we will be seeing unbelievable footage and pictures from the aftermath that this storm will put on the area. 

Something interesting to note, once the typhoon hits the Philippines they will change the name to Juan because they use a different naming system then rest of western Pacific countries.   They do this so the names are more familiar to people in their own country.   It can cause confusion though since a person could think it is actually two different systems when they are actually talking about the same one.  When a typhoon forms they can pick from the list of the 17 countires that submitted a name for that year. 

Whats the difference between a Typhoon and a Hurricane? A Typhoon includes Cats 1 to 4 of a hurricane.  A Super Typhoon is part of Cat 4 and 5. So mainly it is just a name since the Typhoon does not add Categories.  

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Natural Disasters, Travel, Tropics, Weather NEws

I can’t believe that it is almost October, and that some places up north are almost to peak for fall color!  Fall officially started a week ago but across the area it has felt like fall the entire month of September.  Fall is such a gorgeous time of the year with the leaves changing colors.  I have talked about this a few times but I can truly say the season I probably missed most living in Florida and Texas was fall.  The natural beauty that fall brings really is spectacular.

Last year I wrote an article about why leaves change.  That is always a common question that people seem interested in.  So if you want to know the answer you can check out this link.  I’ll give you a clue, it has to do with the sun!

If you haven’t had a chance to get out and experience the colors for yourself you can look at this link to find out how far along your colors are! The site also has great ideas and maps on where to go to see the leaves.  I know that I am going to head up to Rib Mountain soon, before it’s to late!

Here is the map of colors across the state:

Last but not least! We saw our next Tropical Storm today, Tropical Storm Nicole.  But she was very short lived.  She was only a tropical storm for around 7 hours!  Her last advisory was just issued so she is no more.  One thing she did though bring LOTS of rain to Florida.

Have a great day tomorrow in enjoy the beautiful fall weather! I will on the golf course!

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall, Fall Color, Tropics

Just a few crazy states about the hurricanes spinning in the Atlantic:

Since 1851 when records were kept Igor and Julia are the first simultaneously Cat 4 storms since Sept 16th 1926 and those two only happened for 6 hours! Needless to say this is a very RARE occurrence.

Also Julia is the strongest hurricane EVER that far west in the Atlantic ocean.

This blog did an excellent job of categorizing how big Igor is compared two other large storms, Ike and Katrina.  It also superimposed this image of Igor over the Eastern US.  You can see from the image that it would extend from Dallas to New York almost 1400 miles!  This could play an issue as it heads to Bermuda.  Because this storm is so large that even without a direct hit the island will likely see tropical storm force if not hurricane force winds.  Right now tropical storm force winds extend out 225 miles from the center of the storm.  This is just shy off how far tropical storm force winds extended from Ike and Katrina, 275 and 230 respectively. 

 For more info check out the article.

I wanted to share a picture sent from a school I visited on Monday.  The Montessori school in Wausau had  me in to talk about weather.  They were great kids and had fantastic questions :

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Tropics, Viewer pictures, Weather History, Weather NEws

Go Pack Go!  I got into work early today so I would make sure to get everything done and still be able to catch the game in between graphics, web stuff and forecasting.  The guys in back as we call them or our wonderful directors are nice enough to hook me up and put the Packers game on our TV in the studio so I can still watch it. 

I also was surprised to see that not only the packers are in tense so is Igor! Last night when I left work Igor had just become a hurricane.  When I wrote my blog last night it was still a tropical storm, just to show you how much things can change in less than 24 hours.  In 9 hours Igor pressure dropped 38 millibars.  This is what we call a “bomb” in meteorological terms.  When the pressure of a storm drops more than 24 millibars in 24 hours!  It also increased from a Cat 1 hurricane to a Cat 4! Right now winds are estimated at 140 mph.  It could possibly become out first Cat 5 storm in 3 years.  The last Cat 5 storm was in 2007, Hurricane Felix.  Here is a great picture of Igor from NASA.

If there is any good news about this intensifying hurricane it is that it could be one “for the fishes”. Most tracks of the storm take it out to sea and not impacting the United States.  What we will have to watch is the path and Bermuda.  Here is the spaghetti diagrams of Igor:  

As you can see all of them steer clear of the US through the long term.  It is possible that tracks could change but when it is that consistent I highly doubt it will be a storm that we will have to watch for the US.  I believe that is great news considering it will likely be a 5 and could have caused major destruction.   We also have another tropical depression, number 12, just off the Africa coast.  It is amazing to think that YEARS ago we couldn’t look that far out in the sea and see all these hurricanes.  Amazing that the tropics were quite through mid August but now they have really heated up!

Also wanted to update you on the Boulder fire.  It may turn out that a fire pit caused the blaze that has burned 10 square miles in the Boulder area.  If that turns out to be true it could cause criminal charges. 

Also wanted to let you know I will be working tomorrow morning but Justin but have an early school talk so I likely won’t have time to blog. 

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Natural Disasters, Tropics, Uncategorized, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

Today was the everything weather day! It rained hard overnight, then it was dark, gloomy with heavy mist through most of the late morning. By early afternoon the clouds broke and sunshine came out and it felt warm.  Tonight we are seeing mainly clear skies and them temps are already dropping.  I tell you, if today didn’t make everyone somewhat happy then I don’t know what could.

Speaking of today we had the 9 Iron challenge.  It is a tournament played by most people who work at Channel 9 and other folks from the community.  It is different from most golf tournaments because you are only allowed to use your 9 iron, a wedge and a putter!  Just imagine how many strokes it takes to get down a par 5 fairway with a 9 iron.  We had a blast playing and I have to say was an easy golf game for me because my hardest decision on the course is which club to use ( I need a catty!)!  I played with Sean in Jayson in sports and with Mike in news and I think we all enjoyed playing even if the weather started out on the crumy side.   

I also went to Dells of the Eau Claire for the first time this past week and was so bummed I had never went in two years of living here!  It is a gorgeous place and a perfect place to take a hike or a walk.  I highly suggest going there if you haven’t been.  It is not to far outside of Wausau, probably 20 min, and it is well worth the drive. 

I am sure it will be even prettier in the Fall!  This year should also be a good one for fall colors.  If you will remember last year was not so good.  We had a very warm Sept and then Oct it was wet and cool so the leaves either fell off or didn’t change before the drastic change in weather.

In the tropics we have Igor which is almost at hurricane strength. There is also an area in the Caribbean that could strengthening.  So far the Caribbean has been quite this year, only once storm has tracked that way.   The area in the Caribbean has a 60% chance of forming and if it does could be something we keep a close I on.  For now it looks like Igor could take a similar track to recent storms, especially Earl and turn towards the north and brush the eastern seaboard.  This is still many days out though and could change.

Last year I blogged about the weather on 9/11 and how it impacted the attacks on US soil.  Of course since  weather and flying go hand in hand it played a big roll in weather the terrorists could execute their attack.  Check out this link for it.

Have a great night! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Fall Color, Science, Summer, Trails, Travel, Tropics, Uncategorized, Weather NEws

Cool, Wet and Windy that is what we are going to see on our Tuesday.  Tomorrow winds are going to be the real issue.  Wind Advisories are popping up to the south of us but as of 7:30 pm they have not issued an advisory for us.  Tomorrow sustained winds will be from 20-30 mph, yes sustained winds.  This means gusts could range from 40 to 50 mph!!!  I can say it is not a day I would want to be out on the golf course.  This being said, be careful if you drive a high profile vehicle or have outdoor plans.

Why are the winds going to be so high?  If you look at the image below you can see a tight pressure gradient this is when the black lines are close together. If you look at the pressure gradient over Wisconsin compared to any other location in the US you can see that it is the tightest.  This is because the low pressure that is swinging the cold front though tonight is a fierce one.

Last but not least say hello to Hermine… Tropical Storm Hermine will make landfall tonight just south of Brownsville, Texas.  It is following almost the exact path that Hurricane Alex followed back in June.  Good news is that it is much weather since it is only a Tropical Storm with winds of 65 mph.  Alex was a Cat 2 with winds around 115 mph.  Texas will still deal with strong winds and possible flooding since they have already seen an abundant amount of rain this season.

Hope you all had a great Labor Day! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Science, Severe Weather, Storms, Tropics

As we have blogged this week today marks the anniversary of one of the most devastating days in American history-Hurricane Katrina.  Today is the day that she made landfall on New Orleans.  Like 9/11 and other memorable days in history I think everyone remembers where they were.  I was actually at the gym.  I remember I was on the Elliptical and in front of me they had every news station on.  It was early in the morning and the sites were unbearable.  It actually hit land at 6:10 am, and remember this was the second landfall on the United States, it had hit landfall in Southern Florida  on August 25th only two hours prior to the landfall on Florida had it become a hurricane.

What was the biggest issues in New Orleans was the levies and something we constantly heard after it hit- would the leaves hold.  Katrina storm surge causes 53 levee  to breach causing most of the city to be inhabitable. 

Overall Katrina was the most costly and destructive hurricane to hit the United States.  It produced 81.2 billion dollars in damage, this is double the most destructive hurricane before Katrina which was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  Damage occurred in Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. It was also sadly the deadliest hurricane since Hurricane Okeechobee in 1928, which is astonishing considering the technology and advanced warning we have in the 21st century.  Over 1800 people died from Katrina in August of 2005. 

During the time Katrina happened I remembered talking with friends that lived in New Orleans about their experience.  I was on a national board for an organization and a few of the members were from Xavier.  It really hits home when you talk to them about living through the day.  I also remember talking to a friend who attended Loyola which ended up being close for the semester.  It’s crazy how in one day everything can change.

 I visited New Orleans in May of 2007, although alot of recovery had occurredit was unbelievable to still see how much they still had to rebuild.  I remember most the drive from the airport and looking at the sections of town that hadn’t even been touched with rebuilding.  I also saw an IMAX film with Harry Connick Jr which explained why the marshes are so important at protecting the coastal Parishes and how Katrina really tore them apart.  There was still markings from what was inhabitable.  And still 5 years later there are areas under construction. 

Katrina was a sad reminder to just how powerful mother nature can be.  I know we learned about about preparation, construction and advanced time in warnings and these are lessons that will hopefully prevent such a disaster happening again to the US.

Look at the flooding.  Here is a link to the damage and recovery.

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics

Not one, not two but maybe three…. yes we are watching three areas in the Tropics.  It was a slow start to the Hurricane season but like I mentioned earlier this week Sept is usually the most active month and there is still a good chance to see more storms fire up.  As of right now we have Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Frank and an area that will likely become our next tropical depression. See the map below:

There is also an area of low pressure off the Louisiana coast that has caused flooding around New Orleans.  They were seeing rain rates at an inch per hour.  Off course tomorrow marks the devastating anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.  This statement from the National Weather Service office in New Orleans was written the day before the hurricane made landfall. It really hits home to just how terrible a Natural Disaster Katrina was.  What are building process that has been.

Our first major Hurricane, Hurricane Danielle luckily had no impact to the US.  It also missed Bermuda pushing to the East of the British Isle.  So thankfully she was a powerful storm that didn’t cause destruction.  She did cause issues through from rip currents.  Over 70 people were rescued in Brevard county with one surfer drowning.  There was also over 100 rescues in Virgina Beach. 

Now all eyes are on Earl.  He could atleast brush close to the Eastern Seaboard but only has about a 20% chance of making a landfall on the US.  IT has been stuck in the current of Danielle but will begin to break free and track more westward than north like its predecessor.  It will pass just to the North of the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean but shouldn’t make any landfalls.  Still tropical storm force winds, and high surf  will be issues for the islands through the beginningof the week.  It should then track towards the north and run mainly parallel to the East Coast. 

On a different subject…. I mentioned earlier about seeing the International Space Station in the night sky.  Saturday nights viewings are at 8:17 for 4 minutes and at 9:54 for 1 minute.  Sunday night you can see the ISS at 8:46 pm.  For all viewing look towards the WNW.  For a complete list of all the times you can check out that link. 

Meteorologsit Kristen Connolly

Posted under Hurricanes, Space, Tropics

Danielle is now a well organized hurricane out in the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph.  Danielle is a compact storm.  As of 9:00 p.m. Monday, Danielle has yet to form a defined eye but continues to tighten, becoming more and more organized.   The current Category 1 Storm is expected to continue this strengthening process and will likely become a major hurricane. 

The good news… Danielle  is not expected to make landfall with the North American mainland.   All computer models keep Danielle out at sea.  However, those in Bermuda will have to watch this storm very closely.

This may be the start of things to come for the Atlantic Hurricane season.  We are now entering peak season, when conditions are most favorable for hurricane development, and the current tropical pattern favors this development as well.

For more on Danielle …click here

Meteorologist Brian Niznansky

Posted under Hurricanes, Tropics