Dramatic Viewer Pictures, Wausaukee Storm

While the weather looks warmer than normal for this week and probably the first part of the weekend (as it has been for most of this month), there is no guarantee this trend will continue into the Fall.

To give us an inkling of how things might change we turn to the latest edition of the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) monthly outlooks - released over the weekend. In this latest model run we see the un-exciting “EC” category over Wisconsin for September. “EC” means the computer models are predicting an equal chance of temperatures being above normal or below normal (same goes for the September precipitation).

CPC Sept. Temp Outlook

The weather could end up warm and dry or cold and wet – but we get no definitive guidance from the climate models.

For September, the one part of the country with more than equal chances of a temperature trend is in the south and southwest, including Texas. The CPC outlook is for a higher chance of above normal temps than below normal temps – just the thing Texans do not want to hear. They have already had their fill of heat (and drought) so far this year.

CPC Sep-Oct-Nov Temp Outlook

Looking a little further into the future, the three month outlook (September, October, November) indicates a greater chance of above normal temps for our part of the country, which would mean a very nice Fall period. Since the computer models are indicating EC for September alone, then that might mean the warmer weather will be concentrated in October and November, prolonging our “warm” season a bit. Keep your fingers crossed.

What about for all the winter enthusiasts? Well, there might be some good news for you as well. The CPC three month outlook for the winter (December, January, February) indicates a little better chance of below normal temps than above normal temps.

CPC Winter Temp OutlookCPC Winter Precip Outlook

The climate models also indicate a greater chance of above normal precipitation around the central Great Lakes region, including southeastern Wisconsin. Much will hinge on the El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) trend in the Pacific ocean. Right now the southcentral Pacific ocean surface temps are in a neutral range and they are expected to stay that way through the Fall. Some ENSO computer models are hinting at the formation of another, albeit weak La Nina. If La Nina forms, recent history indicates it will increase our chances of having real Wisconsin Winter weather (cold and snow).

 
Besides the CPC long range outlooks, severe weather and tropical storms could also make headlines this week. Our greatest chance of severe storms will be tomorrow as it will be turning quite warm and muggy with a warm front and cold front drifting through Wisconsin at different times of the day. Check the SPC for the latest outlooks.
 
The other big storm that could hit the country is the first hurricane of the tropical storm season – Irene. It is hard to believe that even though we are up the the “I” name in the hurricane list, it is the first storm to reach hurricane strength. It is expect to gain some strength as it moves toward the Florida coast later this week. Chech the NHC for the latest updates.
 

Marinette County Tornadic Thunderstorm, by Scott Jasper

Rounding out the severe weather theme, I am very sad to report the first tornado fatality in the state of Wisconsin in a long time. Check Rob’s recap of the tornado from yesterday’s blog entry. The tornado that struck Marinette county last Friday was responsible for the death of one man in a trailer home. It is once again a reminder that trailer homes do not offer good protection from tornadoes. If a tornado is bearing down on your home, it is better to go to a more substantial structure nearby, or go outside and find a low spot like a ditch to ride out the storm. These steps offer no guarantee that you will survive but they increase your odds. If you do stay inside your trailer home, be sure to hide under something substantial, lie in the bathtub, or cover yourself with a heavy blanket to cushion blows from flying/falling debris.

 

Marinette County Tornadic Storm, by Debbie Kelly

On the positive side, our viewers happened to capture some very dramatic pictures of the tornadic storm as it was moving away from our viewing area. During my decades of observing weather in Wisconsin, when I have seen a circular, singular, and sharply defined anvil head (of a thunderstorm) such as the one pictured here, it has always been a storm that created a tornado.

 
Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Viewer pictures

Spectacular Pictures

Before I delve into anything else, I just wanted to share the photograph, that I tried unsuccessfully to upload yesterday. It was a spectacular picture of a retreating thunderstorm (with mammatus clouds) illuminated by the setting sun on Sunday evening. It was taken by Debi Oswald of Park Falls. It is not often we get so much color and so many interesting features in one picture. Many other lucky people saw and snapped pictures of that sunset. I would like to put a lot more pictures in the blog at this point but I have not yet figured out how to get them all to line up nicely and not ruin the format of the post. I guess I will just put them at the end of the text, so check the bottom.

Staying on the subject of cool pictures, how about that Space Shuttle launch from last week! Nice to see that it went off without a hitch. As I have mentioned in the past, I side with those who decided to shut down the program. It was too expensive, too dangerous, and too old to continue. The program was fabulous when it began and there were some great advances and discoveries made during the shuttle era, but now it is way past time for something new. I think the private-public partnership for space exploration in the future is a good thing to try. In any case, here is a great picture of the last shuttle launch heading off into the wild blue (or black) yonder. It is amazing how huge the space shuttle and its booster rockets are, yet how tiny they seem against the vastness of space.

Outside of shuttle news, the most interesting space exploration news is that the robotic spaceship ”Dawn” has arrived at the large asteroid (or proto-planet) Vesta. It will orbit and study the object for the next year. Read about it and view pictures here

Have a pleasant Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Picture by Chris Wypij

Picture by Laurie Zondlo

Posted under Space, Viewer pictures

This post was written by jloew on July 19, 2011

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Circumhorizontal Arcs

I was very excited to see a handful of viewer pictures arrive in our weather department inbox (weather@waow.com) yesterday. The subject matter of the pictures was a rare colorful atmospheric phenomenon, a circumhorizontal arc. You can read about it here or here. According to some, at our latitude and further south the circumhorizontal arcs are not rare – being seen several times each Summer. I disagree. I would consider them to be quite rare because you have to be outside at just the right time with the right type of clouds looking at the right angle.

Picture in Green Bay, by Angela Koon

If they happen just “several times” each Summer, how often are you going to be outside at the right time to see them?Also, they are not typically very spectacular or long lived. Many times people just see a small patch of color for a fleeting moment. They might look more like a sundog.

It takes just the right composition of ice crystals to reflect/refract incoming visible light to create this colorful phenomenon. If the ice crystals are primarily plates, then the circumhorizontal arc will be seen. If the ice crystals in the cirrus clouds are more needles, dendrites, columns, or other forms then it is less likely to see the arc.

Picture from Oneida County, by Mike & Tammy Saal

You can think of them as an “ice rainbow” or perhaps a “cirrus cloud rainbow”.

I am jealous that I did not see the one that occurred just last Friday. It was a big one, as you can see in the pictures. The people who observed it say it was one of the most beautiful things they have seen in quite some time. What makes it so spectacular is that the white light shining through the cirrus cloud can make it seem to shimmer, so it can be much more brilliant than the average rainbow.

Have a nice Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Picture taken by Terri in Rhinelander last Friday, May 27th

Posted under Viewer pictures

Late Winter Storm

Just a quick post before I head out! I wanted to share these couple pictures I showed this morning,

This one is from Adam Eberle taken in Tomahawk.  Look how the snow rolls! He also shared a video you can check that out here. IMG_4366

This is another picture I shared this morning:

This one is from Amy Wilhelmi in Colby.  If you look you can see fog or steam radiating off of the snow pack.  This happens alot when we see melting in the spring can usually causes fog and reduced visibilities.  We have seen alot of melting across the area recently.

I hope you weren’t thinking winter is over just yet! We have a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the majority of our area except for folks to the south of Highway 29.  This means we will see a major winter storm on our hands from Tuesday into Wednesday.  Snow accumulations will vary from around 4-8″ in the watch area.  Places in the far north where only snow will fall could see from 8-12″ or more.  To the south of 29 where it should stay as a mix for a longer period we will see slick conditions thanks to sleet, snow and even freezing rain.  Needless to say it will be a messy couple days.   It is likely everyone will a see a change over to all snow by Wednesday but totals should be less than 4 inches in our far Southern viewing area.

Hello Spring…. or is it Winter still?

Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Seasonal Items, Snow Totals, Spring, Storms, Viewer pictures, Weather History, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

This post was written by kconnolly on March 21, 2011

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Neat Viewer Pictures

Since we had a comment yesterday about a viewer picture (that was shown on TV), I thought I would share a couple of neat ones with readers today. The picture responsible for the comment was sent in by Jerry of Schofield and it is like nothing I have seen before. I wish I could have seen it in person to try to figure out how the snow got into that shape. When you look at the picture, it looks like snow hanging on a fence, but there is no fence. The landscaping you see in the picture is stone paver-type blocks. S

Jerry's Picture

now fell on the landscaped wall (on the blocks) and then slowly sagged off of the block without falling apart. Don’t ask me how it happened, but with the wind this week, I doubt the snow is still hanging around.

Sent in by Julie from Vesper

The second picture is depicts in the interesting actions of cows during the winter. Julie from Vesper noticed the round bales looked a little odd. What happened is that the outside of the round bales became damp and frozen so the cows ate out the center. This left a ring of hay through which to take a picture of one of Wisconsin’s crazy cows.

Those cows might want to camp out inside the hollowed-out hay bales a bit this weekend because we will have two rounds of precipitation – both quite light. A light mixture of sleet, snow, and freezing rain is possible this afternoon and some light snow is possible on Sunday. If the snow does develop on Sunday there could be up to an inch accumulation. It shouldn’t be too much trouble for people heading to various parties to watch the Super Bowl because temps will reach the upper 20s to around 30. Much of the snow will melt off the roadways. The only trouble could be after the game when temps drop down into the teens and lower 20s. This could cause a little bit of icing in spots. As far as the game goes, I am picking the Packers (no surprise, eh?). Big Ben, the quarterback for the Steelers has historically & statistically played very poorly in the Super Bowl – only making enough big plays when needed. I think that poor play will catch up to him this year with such an opportunistic Packer’s defense. Go Packers!

Have a pleasant weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under forecast, Viewer pictures

This post was written by jloew on February 4, 2011

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Coldest Night of the Year!

A Canadian air mass has arrived and it will likely bring the coldest night of the season! Because of that a FREEZE warning is in effect for the entire area.  Most of us won’t just hit freezing but will drop a cold as the mid 20′s.  If there are any plants that you keep outside that you want to still have tomorrow make sure to cover them or bring them inside.  To top it off any amount of wind will make it feel cooler.

I had to go back to April to find a temp that was below 30 for Wausau.  The last time we hit the 20′s was April 22nd when we dipped to 27.  That is just crazy to think that it has been a half of a year! We did see a few 30′s last month in Sept.  We hit 35 on both Sept 25th and 26th.  The last time we hit below freezing in the 30′s was on May 10th.  On that date we hit 31!

On the flip side we are going to see 60′s even 70′s this week! This will be what we called an Indian summer.  An Indian summer occurs after the first frost but before the first snowfall.  It is usually a period of warm, sunny weather!

I also wanted to share these two pictures sent in from the Flood.  They were taken a week apart Sept 24th and Oct 1st.  The first is after the rain the second is the week before. This is taken at the Little Bull Falls at the Yellow River just north of Pittsville.  You can’t see any of the falls after all the rain we saw!  Thanks to Monica and Mike from Pittsville for sending them.

Have a good night! Meteorologsit Kristen Connolly

Posted under forecast, Freeze, Viewer pictures, Weather NEws, Winter Weather

This post was written by kconnolly on October 2, 2010

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Flooding Continues

What a few days it has been.  I have to say the one impressive aspect I noticed over the past few days was how communities have come together to help those in need and made an effort to do whatever they could to help the flood victims.  It is really unfortunate that it we had to deal with the devastation but at least for us it looks like the worst of it is over.  We are now in the recovery mode. 

In our area we are down to only minor flooding in Wisconsin Dells and in Black River Falls. 

 In Black River the current stage is 48.37 as of 7pm.  They are still under a Flood Warning and will be until they can get below the Flood Stage of 47. So by tomorrow morning they should be able to break that boundary and reduce the flooding even more. 

In Wisconsin Dells the Wisconsin River is at 17.26 with their Flood Stage at 16 feet.  This area and Portage is being watched carefully with evacuations in place.  They could deal with moderate to major flooding over the next couple days.  It could be until Wednesday before they see the relief that the rest of us have seen.

The runoff from the rivers that crested are now feeding into the Mississippi.  This means we could see more flooding now from the excess of water in the Mississippi.  If you look at all the graphs on this page you can see all the rivers that feed in go down to below flooding potential while all the places where the Mississippi is are in forecasted in the upward trend.  This means through the week it is likely we will see more flooding in places like La Crosse, and McGregor, Iowa.  So while it may be over for some of us it may just be beginning for others. 

Thank you to so many people for sending in pictures.  I put a montage together, you can check it out here.

This week is going to be a week like no other- nothing but sunshine and seasonal temps! This will be a nice break from the rain. 

Have a good one! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under Flooding, forecast, Viewer pictures, Weather NEws, Weather Safety

This post was written by kconnolly on September 26, 2010

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X Marks the Spot

** A DENSE FOG ADVISORY is in effect for Adams, Juneau, and Monroe counties until noon today** Besides low visibilities, the fog might cause thick frost and slippery conditions on some roadways.

The fog that has been around the area for a few days and that developed in the southern part of the area this morning has produce dramatic scenes of hoar-frost in the area. This is a thick frost that grows on objects such as trees when there is no wind, the temperature is below 32, and the low level air is saturated with moisture (as is the case with fog). Another description of hoar frost, although not the best. Here are some cool pictures that viewers have taken over the past week.

“%$^*%^($!!!”

Sorry, the blog software screwed up and most of the post was lost. Believe me, I am swearing under my breath right now. I’ll have the “X marks the spot” pics again tomorrow. Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Ken Vander Waal

Ken Vander Waal

Posted under Science, Viewer pictures

This post was written by jloew on January 18, 2010

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Various Interesting Images

First an update on yesterday’s electric vehicle news: I forgot to mentin that the world’s leading electric sportscar maker (Tesla) has turned a profit.

Tesla Roadster

Tesla Roadster

This is the first step needed for a more wider distribution of alternative vehicles. If a company does not make a profit, it will fail. If not today then tomorrow or next year. The bad news is that analysts are not too sure Tesla can keep it up for the next couple of quarters. They had a surge of orders that have been recently filled and it is uncertain whether that level of sales can continue.

Another follow up on a weather theme I have been tracking for a couple years now: water shortages. For the longest time, most of the world’s water problems were being blamed on AGW, and water shortages would become very severe in the near future. Sometimes a nod would be given to over-consumption (which seems to be the main driver of water problems). Here is an article that does not mention AGW, but rather pins the tail on the donkey in northern India. Northern India is facing major water problems in the future because they have been taking out too much in the recent past. Ground water levels are declining a foot per year. Scientists were able to quantify the decline in water by measuring changes in gravity with the GRACE satellite. You wouldn’t think a satellite could measure such small changes in gravity due to changes in underground water storage but it is very sensitive.

And now a follow up on the drought situation in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Drought

Wisconsin Drought

I can tell you things are still a bit dry, because I was out watering a couple of my gardens yesterday. The rain during the first week of August really helped out but this warmer weather is drying things out rather quickly. The latest US Drought Monitorshows a slight improvement in Wisconsin. This is mainly due to the increase in rainfall during the first week of August and the heavy downpours in central and southern Wisconsin last weekend. We still have a long way to go and not too much widespread rain is in the forecast. There is a slight chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Friday and then a 40% chance of thunderstorms from Sunday night into Monday morning. Sadly, it looks like another bad year for wild blackberries (one of my favorite berries).

Some of the rain and thunderstorms in southern Wisconsin last weekend provided an opportunity for some scary viewer photographs.

Pic By Suzan O'Keefe

Pic By Suzan O

Suzan O’Keefe snapped these photos of an ominous shelf cloud (a type of arcus cloud) last weekend while driving north from Madison to Stevens Point.

Pic By Suzan O'Keefe

Pic By Suzan O

 It looks like a very severe storm but a shelf cloud like this is not always indicative of severe weather. In this case, some of the storms in southern Wisconsin did produce high winds and heavy rainfall. The shelf cloud in this case was very low to the ground because the humidity was very high. Read about arcus clouds here. See more cool arcus cloud pictures here.

Speaking of cool photographs, take a look at this gallery of some of the biggest asteroid impacts that have scarred the earth.

And lastly, another story I am following – the Lunar X-prize. In this article there is a link to an image gallery that shows many of the current rover designs that are hoping to win the millions from Google and the X-Prize foundation.

Have a nice Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Alternative Energy, Drought, Viewer pictures

This post was written by jloew on August 13, 2009

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