It looks like we will set a new record for rainfall today in Wausau. The old record is 1.30 inches, set in 1899. As of earlier this morning we had already received a bit over an inch. With the rain last night and today, October will end up being the wettest month of the year with over 4 inches of precipitation. Previously, the wettest month was June with 3.94 inches. Many people have been commenting that this rain would have served us better back in July. That is definitely correct, but we got to take what we can get, whenever it falls, this year.

The storms also produce some high wind, hail, and heavy downpours at times, prompting some severe storm warnings during the mid-morning hours. There was one report of some power lines and a barn being blown down in the Colby area. It is a very strong cold front which generated the heavy rain and the severe weather and we will really feel the difference after the front moves through. After high temps in the 60 during the morning, temps will fall into the 40s by late afternoon. High temps will then be stuck in the low to mid 40s from Friday all the way through the middle of next week. Low temps will be in the 20s. It will be some chilly Fall weather. It will be colder, but the weather should be dry with some sunshine on most days.

The bigger weather story developing in the country that you will hear a lot about over the next few days is hurricane Sandy. It is moving northward and might merge with the strong front moving through our area. Once these two weather systems merge of at least interact with each other along the east coast, a bigger storm could develop. This could mean some high wind, high surf, and heavy rain for parts of the mid-Atlantic region all the way up to New England.

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In random bits of space news. It looks like Virgin Galactic will be delayed once again before offering sub-orbital flights. It now looks like it will be 2014 before they will have paying customers in the sky. They were originally supposed to be launching earlier this year. No word on what the hold-up is. They had better watch out. Technology might pass them by. Pretty soon we might have orbital (a true trip to space) rides for the same price.

One other sub-orbital hopeful, XCOR, showed off their space plane recently. It looks cool. It would be even cooler if it does not get delayed as much as Virgin Galactic.

Have a swell Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Rainfall Reports, Records, Space

I ran out of time for a full blog post today, so it is a short one. I spent a bit of time researching whether or not a “warm” March means that there will be a “hot” Summer ahead. The results are interesting and I will blog about it tomorrow.

For today how about a little update on some space news:

The Virgin Galactic effort to build a successful private space tourism business might be progressing at a snail’s pace but at least they are still able to drum up publicity, this time from one of their paying customers. Ashton Kutcher has ponied up the money for a flight to the edge of space that might occur sometime in 2014.

Galactic Atlas

For those of you who cannot afford a trip to space (the vast majority of us), you can still see the galaxy with the most up-to-date atlas of the stars released by NASA.

Also released recently, the most comprehensive (and beautiful) image of the Messier 9 star cluster.

Not satisfied with only one star cluster, how about 200,000 galaxies. You can see them in the most detailed deep sky images taken to date. Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Messier 9 Star Cluster

Posted under Space

In my little round-up of northern lights and space news yesterday I forgot to mention that it seems Virgin Galactic it taking its time testing its launch and flight capabilities. This article indicates that they will try their first rocket powered flight sometime later this year and that commercial operations could be as far as two years away. I wonder what is slowing things down. I was expecting private tourist flights already late this year. SpaceShipTwo doesn’t seem too much different from SpaceShipOne. Then again, I am not an aerospace engineer, so I probably underestimate the difficulty of flying a ship to the edge of space or beyond. I am sure safety is of paramount concern. One accident early in the operation of private spaceships could derail the whole industry. The private space industry requires paying happy customers. It is different than NASA where accidents are tragic but the funding keeps flowing.

Also, today is the day when the biggest solar flare in the last 5 years is supposed to strike the earth, although, I will remind everyone that space weather forecasting is quite tricky, so if nothing happens and there are no northern lights, I wouldn’t be surprised. If the flare hits as expected, then keep you eyes to the northern horizon late tonight. There is a chance the clouds could clear up enough after midnight to allow us to view the potential auroras.

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 In the world of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) there is never a shortage of news and research and I try to bring a few different themes to the blog. Just yesterday I came across some opinions from a climate scientist that has a similar viewpoint to my own. That is Judith Curry from Georgia Tech (mentioned previously in the blog). Some people would probably like to pigeon-hole her as a hard core skeptic, “denier”, “flat-earther”, “environmental terrorist”, or what-not, because she withdrew her support for the IPCC, but in this recent article I think you will find a balanced and nuanced view of the science and politics. It is worth the read if you follow the AGW story. In contrast to my focus on technological progress and alternative energy, Professor Curry worries a bit more about bias. I also think it is something the IPCC might take too lightly. When most alternative theories and conflicting data is shoved to the sideline, there is a high danger of group think (within the IPCC). Errors can be compounded.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Space

I don’t do regular space news updates anymore but there are a couple of trends I have followed in past years which I feel need follow-ups from time-to-time. One of these topics is private space flight. Let us get real for a minute. The U.S. is some ungodly trillions in debt (that is trillions with a T). NASA is not going to be as much of a player in future human space flight and exploration. They still do great science work and robotic exploration, but if actual humans are going to move out into space, it will take private industry and collaborations among countries in order to do it. Deep down, NASA probably knows this as well, and it is evidenced buy NASA buying seats on future Virgin Galactic sub-orbital flights. Maybe they are just throwing a lifeline toward Virgin Galactic, but I think they know future budgets cuts are coming and Virgin represents a cheaper option going forward.

For the future launch of SpaceShipTwo, it appears things are going well in New Mexico. Virgin Galactic recently dedicated a new hangar at Space Port America. Now it is just waiting game for all the safety testing to be done. While future private astronauts are waiting to get to the edge of space, other companies are dreaming up other uses for “space planes”. Theoretically they could be used in commercial air travel. Airline company KLM is planning a supersonic “space plane” for regular air travel destinations. They figure with their plane, a person could fly half way around the world in about 2 hours. Right now it takes about 10 to 12 hours. One of the main problems will be noise, as supersonic airplanes create big sonic booms.

In other private space flight news, a small group of space enthusiasts recently tested out an air ship (blimp) in Nevada and reached a level higher than any other airship in human history – 95,000 feet. They did this on a budget of only $30,000! Wow! Other aerospace firms have spent millions over past decades in the same endeavor and have yet come up pretty much empty. Eventually they hope to reach an altitude of 27 miles. At this level they could end up launching spacecraft and satellites into orbit.

Don’t forget about Bigelow Aerospace as well. Even though they have not been in the news too much lately, they are still moving forward with their inflatable space stations. Apparently, there is high demand for their 6 person inflatable space station. Take a look at their latest accomplishments here.

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Lastly, here is the latest US Drought Monitor. No change in the conditions here in Wisconsin. Conditions have been quite good through most of the year. Texas is getting a little more rain (and snow) lately but they still have extreme or exceptional drought across most of the state.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Drought, Space

The weather continues to be perfect for this time of year which means clear skies over the next couple of nights, which would be great for viewing the northern lights…if they are on display. The sun let out a huge solar flare on Tuesday of this week which can sometimes lead to good northern lights. Experts don’t expect dramatic geomagnetic activity (northern lights) but forecasting such things is an immature science. From what I have seen, the forecasts for northern lights have not been too accurate in the past (although I admit I do not have any objective data to prove it). I am thinking since the official forecast is for not much geomagnetic activity, perhaps tonight and even Thursday night will be good nights to take a look to the north (taking the contrarian view). The only trouble is that we have a waxing gibbous moon right now and it will be out during most of the night for the next couple of nights. Check sunrise, sunset, moonrise, and moonset times here. If you end up getting any pictures of northern lights this week or in the future, please send them to weather@waow.com. Keep track of space weather forecasts here.

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Here in the blog, I like to practice the seemingly lost art of the “follow-up”. Looking back through the years of blog topics there are probably too many subjects to follow-up on but I do focus on a few. For those interested in space and space exploration, I still discuss the Mars rovers a bit and I try to follow the development of private spaceflight as well. The most exciting news on this front lately is that Spaceport America in New Mexico is almost complete. It is on schedule to “launch” its first sub-orbital Virgin Galatctic flights next year.

Also, private space companies might be required in order to keep the International Space Station up and running now that NASA is without a viable space vehicle to transport humans and the Russia Soyuz recently experienced a crash.

Unfortunately, a private space company also experienced a crash recently. The very secretive Blue Origin space vehicle did not suffer a serious malfunction. It was just going off course and automatically shut off its engines. Then it crashed to the ground.

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As for a follow up on the newest cold fusion discovery/device in Italy earlier this year, I have had no luck getting a hold of the original author of the article I linked to. I guess I will have to go straight to the source and see if the Italian inventors speak English. In any case, they claimed earlier this year that “in a few months” they would be selling their device all over the world and it would be a proven technology. I am still skeptical.

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The last follow-up is in regards to getting meteorological seasons officially included on standard calendars. No luck in this regard. I contacted three of the top calendar companies in the U.S. by email but did not get any real replies. One of the companies said they respond within 24 hours. Sure, I got a response. It was a cut-n-paste answer to a question I didn’t even ask. Such is the state of customer service in the 21st century. Maybe a phone call will get better results – although a person needs great investigatory skill to find a phone number on many big company websites nowadays.

Have a nice Wednesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under Alternative Energy, Nature, Seasonal Items, Space

It is a follow-up Thursday here in the weather blog.

Not too long ago I decided to stop doing space exploration updates. I love keeping an eye on the latest efforts, but I didn’t know how much it thrilled the blog reading audience, and no one commented on the decision so I figure it must be ok. However, I hate to leave any loose ends out there and media outlets do not do follow-ups very often so here are a couple of stories that I previously followed.

The first update is from Japan and their space agency JAXA. Japanese scientists are now quite sure that the Hyabusa satellite did collect small grains of material from an asteroid.If this is confirmed, it will be the first ever sample returned from an asteroid. At one point, I am pretty sure JAXA was lobbying for designation in the Guinness World Book of Records. If confirmed, it would be a pretty amazing feat for a satellite/probe that had so much trouble during its mission. At one point, it didn’t even look like Hayabusa would make it back to earth.

Another space follow up here: People are getting very optimistic about the soon-to-open Spaceport America. This is the commercial spaceport that is being built in New Mexico. The first private astronauts will be people riding aboard Virgin Galactic’s suborbital flights. Read more about the progress here. Have any readers out there purchased a ticket? Would you want to take a sub-orbital flight (if it was cheap enough)?

Bad news here, the replacement for the Hubble Space Telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) has run into cost overruns and delays. The cost overrun is more than a billion. This is very bad news in this economy. If the JWST is to be completed, it will most likely have to take money away from other NASA projects, as the government and taxpayers are pretty much stretched to the limit.

On the Mars front, more and more people are suggesting the newest robotic Mars Rover Curiosity (not launched yet) should be built with the capability to search for life on the Red Planet. I am glad to see this development. This is the 6th robotic surface mission to Mars (if I have counted correctly), and it is about time we start searching more diligently for signs of life, otherwise what is the point. Movie director James Cameron suggested the rover should have a high definition video camera as well, to which I would say of course! I can’t believe NASA would even consider sending another probe to Mars without some sort-of video capability.

In the past I have discussed the threat of asteroids hitting the earth in the context of humans protecting the planet. So often it is said that humans are awful, are destroying the planet, are a cancer on the earth, are like a virus making everything sick. I counter that view with the fact that if a large asteroid was headed for the earth, there is nothing that could save the planet except humans. If it was up to mother nature we would all perish in that scenario. When it comes to stopping a planet killing asteroid it turns out there are many possible ways but they are all fairly difficult. At least world governments have recently started joint discussions on how such a threat would be addressed.

What about the mystery “missile launch” in California last week? I said I would need more evidence before completely believing that it was a jet contrail instead of a missile launch. I remarked that there should be records of an airplane flight in that area during that time. Apparently, a flight from Hawaii has now been fingered. Satellite images also show a jet contrail in that area around that time.

Lastly, one of my favorite emerging technology stories: cloaking (like StarTrek and Harry Potter). Scientists have theorized a way of making 3D cloaking for large objects. I would like to explain it in more depth here, but this article has already done it well. Be sure to read about the analogy with the cars/traffic in order to understand how this would work.

Have a good Thursday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Space, Technology

The storm has arrived and so far (at the time of this writing), wind gusts have been as high as 44mph in Madison, 48 mph in Oshkosh, 52 mph in Mauston, and 47 mph in Wausau (at 9:19am). A few trees have been reported down in Marinette county Wisconsin and in a couple spots in the U.P. of Michigan. There is still a good possibility that wind gusts could go over 50 mph this afternoon. The wind will continue tonight and tomorrow but I expect the highest wind gusts to occur this afternoon. We will continue to update conditions throughout the day. For the latest, you can follow “StormTrak9″ on Twitter or any of our individual accounts (Justin, Kristen, Brian). You can also follow “StormTrak9″ on Facebook. Additional interesting historical information can be found at the NWS Duluth website.

Also arriving today, as if on cue, “Global Warming to Bring More Intense Storms to Northern Hemisphere in Winter” Is it coincidence that this headline is out today as a near record-breaking storm moves through the Midwest? Maybe. The potential for more intense storms (driven by AGW) has been studied in the past and I have reported these findings in the blog. The theory (condensed version) is that the contrast in temperature between the tropics and the arctic will increase (during the winter) if we experience AGW over the next century. A greater temperature contrast usually means more intense storms in the mid-latitudes. Computer models have now added a little more validity to the theory. However, if AGW happens to a significant extent, the Arctic might warm just as much or more than the tropics. In that scenario, it is harder to see how more intense storms could develop. For reference: My AGW position.

Also arriving today is the perhaps the first “environmental salvo” aimed at the fledgling commercial space tourism industry. Scientists are worried that flights to the edge of space could produce a large amount of soot in the stratosphere. Computer simulations indicate this soot could accelrate any AGW occurring over the next few years. It is a hypothetical scenario but something I am sure Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, and a few others are paying attention to. Private space exploration is a daunting enough task without having to worry about lawsuits from environmental organizations. I hope private space travel is not banned before I have an opportunity to try it out.

As if I haven’t reported enough bad news, AGW could bring more widespread lengthy drought to the developed world.

I hate to end on a depressing note so how about this: the largest solar power plant in the world has been approved for implementation in the U.S. Hooray for the U.S.! This installation had been stalled by environmental regulations (kind-of ironic, eh?) for a good portion of this year. I am glad to see it pass muster, although I am wondering how much political wrangling was going on behind the scenes. For further reading, here is a nice article on the state of solar energy progress in the present day and another about how China (due to low wages and near zero effective environmental regulations) is becoming the solar power leader of the world.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under AGW, Climate Change, Severe Weather, Storms, Winter Weather

Something interesting happened in our “neighborhood” recently, something that you don’t see too often – an earthquake (most likely). Perhaps some of you have already read about it. I commented about it on facebook the other day. At first, it was unknown what had caused the a large crack to form in the ground in Menominee county Michigan. An earthquake was suspected, but there was no seismographic evidence. Now a geologist has opined and declared that the crack was most likely the result of an earthquake of magnitude 1 or 2. Read about it here. One thing to remember is that when the word “earthquake” is used in this story it is in a little different context than what you normally associate with the word. Yes the earth did “quake” and move and it fits the literal definition of and earthquake, however this was not directly generated by movements of the large continental/tectonic plates of the earth. It was a local phenomenon caused by some unstable bedrock in Menominee county. It is highly unlikely that any part of the UP is going to slide into lake Michigan anytime soon.

I don’t know about you but hearing a large noise and then going outside and seeing a 5 foot deep crack in the earth would be enough to scare me. Being in the weather business, I see and report on dangerous storms all the time, but there is something about earthquakes that makes me tremble (pun intended). I suppose it is their unpredictable nature and the fact that you cannot run from an earthquake like you can run from a tornado. It would certainly be difficult to protect yourself from the “big one” if and when it hits southern California. A recent study suggests that the “big one” could end up being more devastating than originally thought.

Lastly, an update on the flight of the VSS Enterprise from over the weekend. Here is a nice compilation video of the whole process. One headline called the event a “baby step” on the way toward commercial/private space exploration. I would agree. They didn’t even light the engine yet. I suppose, safety is of utmost importance. One misstep could set back the entire industry for years.

Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under Environment, Space

No winner in the first snowfall contest yet (obviously!) and it doesn’t look like much chance of an inch or greater of snow for the next week to 10 days. We might have to wait until Halloween or even November before we find out who will win the prizes (hundreds of dollars in gift cards and car washes) from the R-stores.

In the weather, the most interesting trend is our spell of Indian Summer weather which included a record high (tied) of 80 here in Wausau on Friday. Today could be our last official Indian Summer day with high temps around 70. However, it looks like we will still have decent October weather for the rest of the week. High temps will be in the upper 60s on Tuesday and in the low to mid 60s from Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday will be the coolest day with high temps in the 50s – which is about normal for the middle of October. The highest chance (40%) of rain will be Tuesday evening but if rain does develop it should be light. This means more good viewing of the Fall colors, however, it now looks like the best color will be in the southern half of the state. I have included a nice fall picture from one of our weather watchers – Rick from Tomahawk.

In science news around the world, it seems like Virgin Galactic has stolen the headlines. Their second spaceship took its first flight over the weekend. It was released from the mother ship and glided down to earth. Now, I know I decided to drop space exploration news from the blog but I thought this was worth a mention since I had covered private space exploration extensively in the past and Virgin Galactic is getting closer to taking paying customers to the edge of space. Unfortunately, SpaceShipTwo (“VSS Enterprise”) stole headlines from a more momentous disclosure from over the weekend. Apparently, Google (yes, the search company) has tested autonomous cars on highways with live traffic conditions. For many years, futurists have forecast the development of self-driving cars. It seems like something out of the Jetsons. This would seem like a ground breaking technical and engineering feat that could transform transportation around the world – particularly in the U.S. – by saving lives and energy. Yet, I did not see any coverage of this revelation in mainstream media outlets. Maybe tonight. I for one would like to have an autonomous car/vehicle. That way I would have my own personal transportation and could relax, eat, work, or what-not while “driving” to work or elsewhere. What does everyone else think? Have you been waiting all your life for an autonomous car? Or could you do without.

Have a fine Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under First Snowfall 2010, Technology, Viewer pictures

First up, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for Portage, Wood, Waupaca, and Waushara counties effective until 7:00pm and for Juneau, Adams, and Monroe counties effective until midnight tonight. A couple inches of rain and perhaps a bit more is possible in the southern part of the area today. Be careful of raising streams or creeks. Don’t drive over any water covered roadways.

The other important rain event you should be aware of is a 60% chance of rain and storms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Unfortunately the beginning of the weekend could be wet. The weather should dry out later Saturday afternoon and Sunday is looking quite nice with plenty of sunshine.

With the frequent rainfall we are sure to see continued improvement in the drought situation across our area and the entire state, that is if a little heavier rain falls in the far north. While most of Northcentral Wisconsin saw heavy rain over the last week, the far north had the least and that is where it is needed most. And, that is why we find a slight increase in the severe drought category in this week’s US Drought Monitorreport for Wisconsin. The percentage of the state that is still experiencing a severe drought increased from 3.3 percent to 3.4 percent. The increase is tiny, but we would rather see that going in the other direction. The severe drought remains in the areas that have been suffering all year long so far – in Vilas, Forest, and Florence counties. Overall there was dramatic improvement since last week. The percentage of the state not experiencing any drought what-so-ever, increased from 53.6 up to 75.5 percent!

Space News:

I like to follow space exploration news in part because it is exciting but also in part because different planets have different atmospheres and weather.  It is a lot more extreme out there than down here on planet earth. There are plenty of interesting things going on everyday between all the robotic/autonomous and human missions which got me to thinking if anyone has considered an all “space” news/media channel on TV. With more people heading to space in the near future, one would think there would be plenty of engaging content. Then again, the media landscape is changing and we might not have a traditional “channel” for space in the future. Video, audio, stories, interviews, and entertainment might be delivered through websites or other mediums other than TV. My favorite current places to look for space news are Space.com, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and Space Weather.

So what has been going on lately? Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo recently carried its first 2 passengers. No, the space ship did not fly to the edge of space. It was attached to its launch plane the whole time. This was just a part of all the testing that has to be done before paying passengers are allowed to take trips. The most disappointing thing I read is that officially, the company has not yet set a date for the first real launch. I was hoping they would have a date we could all look forward to, but I suppose they are just being diligent with safety testing and can’t be sure when SpaceShipTwo will be ready. Safety is very important at this stage. An accident in the early stages of private space exploration and tourism could set the industry back many years.

We wouldn’t want that to happen because that would also derail NASA’s human exploration plans. NASA has mostly given up on developing its own rockets and capsules to send humans in space and will rely on private companies. A consortium of astronauts has recently made an official announcement in support of this idea, but congress might not go along, because it will reduce the amount of money they can shower on their districts to ensure they get elected again in the future.

In anticipation of private contracts coming out of NASA, Boeing has been working on a crew capsule and recently revealed the design – seen in this article.

One entrepreneur has even started a company called Astronauts4Hire. I am a little skeptical about this venture so early in the game, but you never know what services will be needed in the future.

Posted under Drought, Space