Snow-lovers rejoice! We ended up with a record 10.9 inches of snow fall in Wausau yesterday (melted down it was a record 0.54 inches of liquid precipitation for December 20th). Much of central Wisconsin had 6 to 10 inches while it was more in the 2 to 4 inch range in the Northwoods. Besides guaranteeing a white Christmas for the area, the snowfall should also help to alleviate drought conditions.

Snow Totals From December 20th

Ok, I know the ground is frozen right now, but the precipitation still counts toward our yearly total and when it melts in the spring it will help raise the water levels. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor does not show any change in our situation for the past week, but I suspect we will see some improvement in coming weeks, especially if we end up with another snowstorm before the end of the month.

Another snowfall will be crucial because yesterday’s snow was probably not enough to get most of the snowmobile trails open. The problem with the snow in Wausau was it’s very dry, powdery, and fluffy nature. We probably need a heavy wetter snow of 4 to 6 inches yet on top of the 10 inches before most of the trails can be opened, and nothing of the sort will be coming in the next week, but perhaps before the end of the year. If we had snow that was more like cement and it piled up to nearly 20 inches, like it did around Madison yesterday, then we would have no trouble with good trail conditions.

CPC Precip Outlook for January

So will snow conditions stay good through the rest of the Winter? The latest CPC monthly outlooks seem to indicate some hope. The projection for January is that there will be a higher chance of above normal precipitation (hopefully it falls as snow!). On the temperature side of things, we are in the “EC” (equal chances) category which means the climate models cannot pin down any heightened chance of below normal, normal, or above normal trend. The climate models do indicate a higher chance of colder than normal weather for the Dakotas and Minnesota. If we don’t get a lot of snow in January, then the rest of the Winter and Spring might not hold out a lot of hope, as the three-month outlook (Jan-Feb-Mar) indicates EC for precipitation and temperatures. The most interesting (and maybe foreboding) aspect of the latest long range monthly outlooks is a higher chance of above normal temps for our area in late Spring and early Summer. If the year starts out warm again and there is not enough rainfall/snowfall, it will exacerbate the drought that is already in place for most of the nation.

Have a nice Friday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Drought

You’ve most likely heard that a cold snap is quickly approaching.  The next logical question is…will it stay cold into December?  Well at least according to the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, it could turn out to be a fairly chilly December.  They are predicting a colder than normal December from Montana through the western half of Wisconsin.  The greatest chance of being below normal is centered on North Dakota.  Parts of southern and western Alaska are also projected to be on the cooler side.

Meanwhile it is forecast to be warmer than normal in a long strip from southern California and Nevada clear over to Texas and the Gulf Coast States.  I guess the Sun Belt will be even sunnier and warmer than usual for the Holidays if this verifies!  The northern part of Alaska could be warmer than normal as well.  The rest of the nation has equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures according to the CPC.

As far as precipitation goes, much of the nation according to CPC has equal chances of below, normal, and above normal precipitation.  However they are predicting and area from Mississippi and Arkansas north to Ohio to perhaps be wetter than normal.  The only spot they have increased condifence in drier than normal conditions is in southeast Alaska.  So it it basically a toss up for Wisconsin for snowfall.  It could go either way, with no strong signals screaming wet or dry.  Of course if it does turn out to be seasonal or colder than normal we can safely say that whatever snow does fall around here will have a pretty good chance of not melting too much.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Winter Weather

Once again, this is your last reminder, today is the last day for entering the First Snowfall Contest. If you want a chance at winning some valuable gift cards from the R-stores and some free car wash coupons, you had better go here and enter: http://www.waow.com/category/246942/2012-snow-fall-contest

Because this year has been very warm and dry, I am leaning toward a later date than average for the first snowfall (of course, with the cold pattern right now, maybe there will be an early snow, you never know).

Sub-surface heat content continues to decrease

One thing though, I am not leaning later with my pick because of El Nino. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion was released yesterday and the CPC notes that the El Nino trend did not strengthen in the last month. It is still a very weak El Nino. It is expected to remain weak or borderline neutral for the next month or two and then slowly fade. That is what the computer models are predicting and that is the CPC official consensus forecast.

What does this mean for ouur Winter forecast. It could be significant. Many of the far-forward looking forecasts from the CPC and other outlets have been predicting warmer than normal weather through the late Fall and Winter for the Northcentral U.S. If El Nino does not form and fades away, then the odds of a warm winter with lower than normal snowfall are decreased. It DOES NOT mean that it is going to be a more normal Winter or a cold and snowy Winter, just that the odds of a warm Winter are reduced.

Computer forecasts indicate a weak El Nino at best.

In the back of my mind I have a feeling that we might have more snow this Winter (than last). It is just a hunch. It seems some of the more extreme weather has been moving around the globe recently. A couple years ago there was a heat wave in Russia and then it seemed the higher heat moved into our hemisphere. Last Winter there was some record-setting cold and snow in eastern Europe. Maybe some of that will move in our direction at some point this Winter. I know snowmobilers would sure like to have more snow this Winter.

Have a good weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under ENSO Update, First Snowfall 2012

I hope everyone was able to stay safe over the weekend during the snowstorm. It seems the forecast turned out ok with the heaviest snow occuring north of Marathon county. Rhinelander reported 4.0 inches on Saturday. Wausau only had a half inch. I suppose winter enthusiasts might be getting excited about the possibility of a long snowmobile, ski, and ice fishing season. I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but Winter has not arrived yet. I know there is a good amount of snow on the ground in the northern half of the area, but this week and next look fairly mild. As of now, it looks like the will not be any major outbreaks of cold air for the next couple of weeks, which would take us through early December.

CPC December Temp. Outlook

What about the rest of the Winter? As we detailed last month, the official CPC Winter forecast does not indicate a greater chance of colder than normal temps or greater snowfall for Wisconsin. Officially, the CPC is saying we have an equal chance of being above or below normal. In contrast, the computer models continue to show a little better than equal chance that we will have harsher than normal Winter conditions (the possibility of more cold and snow). As an aside, some other outlets, such as the Farmer’s Almanac and Accuwx, have issued forecasts calling for a very bad Winter with a lot of cold and snow.

Dec-Jan-Feb Temp Outlook

Go here to find the latest monthly computer model outlooks issued by the CPC. Interestingly, the forecast for the month of December is for equal chances of above or below normal temperature and precipitation, yet for the entire Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb), the models are indicating a greater chance of colder than normal temps with above normal snowfall (for most of Wisconsin). In my mind, this would mean the Winter might get off to a slow start but then turn much colder and snowy for January and February. Personally, I would like to have it the other way around. I would rather get the bigger snow storms and cold waves out of the way in December and early January and then have milder conditions by February.

CPC Dec-Jan-Feb precip. outlook

In any case, it looks like mild conditions for this week, including high temps near 50 for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, and above normal conditions for much of next week, so Winter enthusiasts will have to temper some of their enthusiasm. Even though the weather will be warmer, overnight low temps in the 20s the next couple of nights should ensure that Granite Peak has a few runs open this weekend as planned. Be sure to check the Granite Peak website , before making plans. With the milder conditions, the first ice might not develop well until sometime during the first week or two of December.

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Now just a couple of follow-ups on some Space stories you might be interested in and that I have mentioned previously in the blog. The Mars Science Laboratory is scheduled to launch on its mission this Saturday, the 26th of November. It is the biggest and most sophisticated rover to be sent to Mars. The rover is the size of a small car and weighs about 1 ton. Hearing that it weighs a ton makes me worried that it might get stuck in the martian sand. The last two rovers experienced quite a few instances where they had trouble getting stuck. Hopefully the wheels on this behemoth (officially name Curiosity) are big enough to keep it “afloat”. Keep your fingers crossed that everything goes well. The success rate of Mars mission is a little less than 50%. In fact, just 2 weeks ago, a Russian Mars mission was lost when it got stuck in earth orbit – probably due to a mechanical or computer failure.

Also on the forefront of private space travel, the company Blue Origin recently successfully launched and landed their vertical take-off/landing spacecraft. This company has been much more secretive about its designs and plans in the past. It is nice to see them release a video. I am unsure when and/or if they plan to take private astronauts (and payloads) to the edge of space or into earth orbit.

In the event that a much desired robotic mission is sent to Jupiter’s moon Europa, there is an increased chance of finding signs of life after an analysis of the planet’s exterior showed there could be liquid water lakes much closer to the surface that thought in the past.

Have a nice Monday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Posted under CPC Outlook, Space

In part three of the trip recap, I’ll start with the observation that there was cell phone reception in the mountains – and this was in quite a remote part of western Colorado. My father said that 5 to 10 years ago there was no cell reception in that particular area, then two or three years ago they could get reception if they stood on a high point. This year they could get reception right in the tent. It is another sign of the expansion of technology.

A Conifer-Covered Mountain Top in the Distance

Cell towers are popping up all over the world. There are very few spots where you cannot get reception. Even in countries many people would consider very under-developed have expansive cell networks. It is a relatively cheap communication infrastructure. The last places on earth without cell phone coverage are the large deserts and sparsely populated mountain and arctic areas.

When I go out into the wilderness I do not carry a cell phone. Crazy, I know. I do it out of principle. I am out there to get away from civilization, not be tethered to it. I suppose when I lose some of my youthful vigor (and naivete),

Rainy Day on the Mountain

I might consider carry more safety devices like a cell phone. For the time being, knowing that I don’t have a phone on me keeps me sharp out in the wilderness. It (no cell phone rule) more accurately replicates the historical feel of exploration around the planet. The funny thing is, when I didn’t arrive Friday evening as scheduled, the fellows at the hunting camp called my wife! Egads! They said I didn’t arrive before dark and of course she became worried. This necessitated my calling her the next day to let her know I was fine. So much for no cell phone calls in the wilderness.

Dad & I

Some of the pictures I have included today are of the general scenery in the Routt National Forest. For people who have not been to Colorado, you might be surprised at how arid it is. Colorado is only green in the Spring and high in the mountains. Otherwise it is closer to desert than a lush temperate zone. The pictures I took are at an elevation around 7,000 to 8,000 feet. Once you get up to 9,000 feet then the trees are mostly conifers, and above 10,000 to 11,000 feet is the typical tree line.

To close this blog entry, here is the latest CPC Winter Outlook. It is about the same as last month except for the area where there is a greater chance of cooler weather this winter (the Dakotas and northern plains) has shrunk a bit. Wisconsin is in the “equal chances” category for temp and precipitation. I am still hedging toward colder and more snowy than last winter because we have a La Nina pattern in the Pacific ocean.

CPC Winter Outlook

La Nina does not guarantee a tough winter, but the most recent handful of La Nina winters have been colder and more snowy than average.

Have a nice weekend! Meteorologist Justin Loew

Posted under CPC Outlook, Travel, Viewer pictures

Those are two terms we tend to hear very often.  Last year we had an El Nino for the winter and this year it looks like it will be just the opposite.  So what does that mean?

El Nino is referred to warm ocean waters which is vice versa of its cousin La Nina.  La Nina is less referenced and can sometimes be less known but it is really just the opposite, it is cooler ocean temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific. 

It looks like this La Nina will continue to strengthen through October and then stay strong through November and December.  It is likely to still be around through spring and start to weaken  through spring or early summer.   

So what will La Nina mean for us?   For the Midwest it usually accompanies short lived cold spells.  That doesn’t mean we are going to see an overall cold winter just bits at a time of real cold weather.  This is the opposite of the milder, less snowy El Nino impact. 

How does this phenomen happend exactly?  During a La Nina easterly trade winds strengthen, this pushes the warmer air at the surface to the west.  After this happens the cooler air below rises to the oceans surface.  El Nino is when the winds weaken and almost stay stationary and warm up. 

 La Nina on the Left

El Nino on the right

Have a great day! Meteorologist Kristen Connolly

Posted under CPC Outlook, Winter Weather

Hello again! It is nice to be back for a couple of days. Just a reminder that I have another vacation that will take me away for about 5 days this weekend and early next week, so you will be enjoying more posts from Kristen and Brian. I was interested to see Brian post about the Farmer’s Almanac Winter Outlook. The one thing that jumped out at me right away was the curious “snowy” area along the Great Red River of the north flood plain between Minnesota and North Dakota. That is quite a small area to pinpoint such a change in conditions for the duration of the winter. This tiny area is surrounded by the “Cold & Dry” category. Cold & Dry does make some sense for our area since there is a moderate La Nina in place in the Pacific Ocean. Of course, cold and dry is probably the least enjoyable type of Winter. Snow is beneficial for many winter-time activities and when and cold dry air is the least pleasant to endure.

Speaking of La Nina, the latest ENSO discussion was released last week and it indicates that at least a moderate La Nina should continue through February. Some computer models are even predicting a strong La Nina.  Although I don’t have a cache of data to back me up, it seems (subjectively) that we tend to have more of a cold north or even northeasterly wind during a strong La Nina Winter.

Computer Forecast

If temps do end up colder than normal, it could mean some hefty lake effect snow for northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, perhaps in some areas that have not received massive lake effect over the last few winters, such as Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas counties. Also, while there is some disagreement as to the eventual strength of La Nina, the models almost universally project La Nina to begin weakening after December.

Speaking of those counties, I was there camping and fishing over the last few days and it was beautiful. The only trouble was a little rain Friday night into early Saturday morning. I have included a few scenery pictures for your enjoyment. The one with the curious stone structures in the river were taken near Washburn. They are called Inukshuks. I have made these before on the shoreline of lake Superior but I did not make these that were in the river. Have a good Tuesday! Meteorologist Justin Loew.

Calm Water on Lake SuperiorA beauttiful long beach on a sunny Sunday morningInukshuks in the Souix River