Toasty spell for mid part of July?

July 7, 2019 0 Comments

July is usually our warmest time of the year in Wisconsin with normal high temperatures in the lower 80s.  So when the outlook calls for above normal temperatures for a period of time, it makes you pause.  No doubt that means some fairly hot conditions could be brewing.

Check out the Climate Prediction Center’s 8 to 14 day outlook covering the period of July 15th – July 21st.

As you notice they are forecasting a large area of above normal temperatures over much of the nation.  In fact they have the probability of being warmer than normal at around 70% in Wisconsin.  That is a very strong signal.

The main reason for the expected warmth is a upper atmospheric pattern that features a strong ridge centered around Colorado to Nebraska in that period.  Notice in the GFS computer model projection below for the 19th of July how the 500 mb air flow goes up and over that ridge of high pressure well into Canada.  This is the classic setup for a heat wave in the Plains and Midwest.

Precipitation

We overall are expecting a break from the frequent heavy rain events that we have been getting over the past few months.  The CPC suggests near normal to drier than normal conditions in Wisconsin from July 15th through July 21st.  In fact they indicate that relatively dry weather should run west across most of the Plains into the Rockies during this stretch.  That would make sense given the strong high pressure ridge and the sinking air associated with it predicted by the models.

We still haven’t hit 90 degrees this summer in Wausau.  This pattern coming our way would give us at least a fighting chance.  Stay tuned for updates!

About the Author:

StormTrak9 Meteorologist with WAOW-TV in Wausau, WI. Also the owner of Great Lakes Weather Service, LLC.

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